mean_time_to_symptoms |
5.42 |
μsym |
Mean time from infection to onset of symptoms (days) |
McAloon et al. |
sd_time_to_symptoms |
2.7 |
σsym |
Standard deviation of time from infection to onset of symptoms (days) |
McAloon et al. |
mean_time_to_hospital |
5.14 |
μhosp |
Mean time from symptom onset to hospitalisation (days) |
Pellis et al, 2020 |
mean_time_to_critical |
2.27 |
μcrit |
Mean time from hospitalisation to critical care admission (days) |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
sd_time_to_critical |
2.27 |
σcrit |
Standard deviation of time from hospitalisation to critical care admission (days) |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
mean_time_to_recover |
12 |
μrec |
Mean time to recovery if hospitalisation is not required (days) |
Yang et al 2020 |
sd_time_to_recover |
5 |
σrec |
Standard deviation of time to recovery if hospitalisaion is not required (days) |
Yang et al 2020 |
mean_time_to_death |
11.74 |
μdeath |
Mean time to death after acquiring critical care (days) |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
sd_time_to_death |
8.79 |
σdeath |
Standard deviation of time to death after acquiring critical care (days) |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
mean_time_to_susceptible_after_shift |
180 |
- |
mean time to susceptible after recovered (and after a fixed period of time_to_susceptible_shift days) |
- |
time_to_susceptible_shift |
10000 |
- |
Fixed number of days individuals are immune until waning immunity begins |
- |
fraction_asymptomatic_0_9 |
0.456 |
φasym(0-9) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 0-9 |
- |
fraction_asymptomatic_10_19 |
0.412 |
φasym(10-19) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 10-19 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_20_29 |
0.370 |
φasym(20-29) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 20-29 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_30_39 |
0.332 |
φasym(30-39) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 30-39 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_40_49 |
0.296 |
φasym(40-49) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 40-49 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_50_59 |
0.265 |
φasym(50-59) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 50-59 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_60_69 |
0.238 |
φasym(60-69) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 60-69 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_70_79 |
0.214 |
φasym(70-79) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 70-79 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
fraction_asymptomatic_80 |
0.192 |
φasym(80) |
Fraction of infected individuals who are asymptomatic, aged 80+ |
- |
mild_fraction_0_9 |
0.533 |
φmild(0-9) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 0-9 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_10_19 |
0.569 |
φmild(10-19) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 10-19 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_20_29 |
0.597 |
φmild(20-29) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 20-29 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_30_39 |
0.614 |
φmild(30-39) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 30-39 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_40_49 |
0.616 |
φmild(40-49) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 40-49 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_50_59 |
0.602 |
φmild(50-59) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 50-59 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_60_69 |
0.571 |
φmild(60-69) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 60-69 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_70_79 |
0.523 |
φmild(70-79) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 70-79 |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mild_fraction_80 |
0.461 |
φmild(80) |
Fraction of infected individuals with mild symptoms, aged 80+ |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey |
mean_asymptomatic_to_recovery |
15 |
μa,rec |
Mean time from infection to recovery (and no longer infectious) for an asymptomatic individual (days) |
Yang et al 2020 |
sd_asymptomatic_to_recovery |
5 |
σa,rec |
Standard deviation from infection to recovery for an asymptomatic individual (days) |
Yang et al 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_0_9 |
0.001 |
φhosp(0-9) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 0-9 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_10_19 |
0.006 |
φhosp(10-19) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 10-19 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_20_29 |
0.015 |
φhosp(20-29) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 20-29 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_30_39 |
0.069 |
φhosp(30-39) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 30-39 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_40_49 |
0.219 |
φhosp(40-49) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 40-49 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_50_59 |
0.279 |
φhosp(50-59) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 50-59 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_60_69 |
0.370 |
φhosp(60-69) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 60-69 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_70_79 |
0.391 |
φhosp(70-79) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 70-79 who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
hospitalised_fraction_80 |
0.379 |
φhosp(80) |
Fraction of infected individuals with severe symptoms aged 80+ who are hospitalised |
Calibration of Riccardo et al. 2020 & Spanish Serology Survey & Ferguson et al. 2020 |
critical_fraction_0_9 |
0.05 |
φcrit(0-9) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 0-9 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_10_19 |
0.05 |
φcrit(10-19) |
Fraction of hospiatlised individuals aged 10-19 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_20_29 |
0.05 |
φcrit(20-29) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 20-29 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_30_39 |
0.05 |
φcrit(30-39) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 30-39 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_40_49 |
0.063 |
φcrit(40-49) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 40-49 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_50_59 |
0.122 |
φcrit(50-59) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 50-59 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_60_69 |
0.274 |
φcrit(60-69) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 60-69 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_70_79 |
0.432 |
φcrit(70-79) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 70-79 who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
critical_fraction_80 |
0.709 |
φcrit(80) |
Fraction of hospitalised individuals aged 80+ who need critical care |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
fatality_fraction_0_9 |
0.33 |
φdeath(0-9) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 0-9 |
Lu et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020 |
fatality_fraction_10_19 |
0.25 |
φdeath(10-19) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 10-19 |
Lu et al. 2020, Dong et al. 2020 |
fatality_fraction_20_29 |
0.5 |
φdeath(20-29) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 20-29 |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
fatality_fraction_30_39 |
0.5 |
φdeath(30-39) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 30-39 |
Ferguson et al, 2020 |
fatality_fraction_40_49 |
0.5 |
φdeath(40-49) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 40-49 |
Yang et al 2020 |
fatality_fraction_50_59 |
0.69 |
φdeath(50-59) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 50-59 |
Yang et al 2020 |
fatality_fraction_60_69 |
0.65 |
φdeath(60-69) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 60-69 |
Yang et al 2020 |
fatality_fraction_70_79 |
0.88 |
φdeath(70-79) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 70-79 |
Yang et al 2020 |
fatality_fraction_80 |
1 |
φdeath(80) |
Fraction of fatalities amongst individuals in critical care aged 80+ |
Yang et al 2020 |
mean_time_hospitalised_recovery |
8.75 |
μhosp,rec |
Mean time to recover if hospitalised |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
sd_time_hospitalised_recovery |
8.75 |
σhosp,rec |
Standard deviation of time to recover if hospitalised |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
mean_time_critical_survive |
18.8 |
μcrit,surv |
Mean time to survive if critical |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
sd_time_critical_survive |
12.21 |
σcrit,surv |
Standard deviation of time to survive if critical |
Personal communication with SPI-M; data soon to be published |
location_death_icu_0_9 |
1 |
φICU(0-9) |
Proportion of individuals in 0-9 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_10_19 |
1 |
φICU(10-19) |
Proportion of individuals in 10-19 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_20_29 |
0.9 |
φICU(20-29) |
Proportion of individuals in 20-29 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_30_39 |
0.9 |
φICU(30-39) |
Proportion of individuals in 30-39 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_40_49 |
0.8 |
φICU(40-49) |
Proportion of individuals in 40-49 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_50_59 |
0.8 |
φICU(50-59) |
Proportion of individuals in 50-59 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_60_69 |
0.4 |
φICU(60-69) |
Proportion of individuals in 60-69 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_70_79 |
0.4 |
φICU(70-79) |
Proportion of individuals in 70-79 year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |
location_death_icu_80 |
0.05 |
φICU(80) |
Proportion of individuals in 80+ year olds with critical symptoms that reach critical care (the remaining proportion die outside of critical care; note that the remaining proportion are marked as being hospitalised in the transmission and timeseries files) |
- |