Hook up AMAT

[dabreegster]

In a call with Adrian, he brought up the idea of running AMAT from ATIP. This is also an idea I've heard earlier. AMAT is https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1102781/active-model-appraisal-toolkit-user-guidance.pdf (I dunno if this is the latest version of this doc!)

Skimming through the doc, we can automate many of the input steps, like area lookup, trip count before from PCT. Maybe we can develop easy methods for the "comparative study" option of the "Number of trips with the proposed intervention" part.

We could generate the current Excel file with the values prefilled, and also show a user-friendly summary in the web browser.

[dabreegster]

Summarizing notes from today... @Pete-Y-CS, @Robinlovelace

• How do we calculate current demand somewhere?
  • Could try PCT, Strava, eventually use a full activity model, etc
  • In the short term: we need a new model to predict this, given inputs such as proximity to A road, ruralness, etc
• The uplift tool
  • Input: cost, location, type of infrastructure
  • The types are not too hard to guess just from the geometry (linear cycletrack vs polygon areas)
  • We'll get cost from LCWIPs after December, but in the immediate term, we could plug in rough cost per km
• AMAT
  • Input: demand before building, demand predicted after building, change in quality
    • The uplift tool provides these demands as output
  • Outputs economic/environmental/health/etc benefits

There are a few tasks we could start on now, no inter-dependencies:

1. Make sure we'll be collecting the right data about LCWIPs to feed into the uplift tool. And maybe additionally, ask for counts before if they're reported.
2. Port the uplift tool logic away from a spreadsheet. Basic suggestion is a new standalone Typescript function, with a simple web UI layered on top
3. Do the same for AMAT

After we have some of these pieces:

• We could do scenario testing. If we spend X in the north, based on the LCWIPs and all of this modeling, what's the expected outcome?
• The sketch tool can start running AMAT automatically, and we can stop asking people to do this manually in the future
• We can improve the modeling components individually

[Robinlovelace]

👍