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中国就业人群调查.html
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<!DOCTYPE html><html lang="zh-CN" data-theme="light"><head><meta charset="UTF-8"><meta http-equiv="X-UA-Compatible" content="IE=edge"><meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, user-scalable=no"><title>中国就业人群调查 | Diffday</title><meta name="keywords" content="行业"><meta name="author" content="DiffDay"><meta name="copyright" content="DiffDay"><meta name="format-detection" content="telephone=no"><meta name="theme-color" content="#f7f9fe"><meta name="mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"><meta name="apple-touch-fullscreen" content="yes"><meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-title" content="中国就业人群调查"><meta name="application-name" content="中国就业人群调查"><meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable" content="yes"><meta name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style" content="#f7f9fe"><meta property="og:type" content="article"><meta property="og:title" content="中国就业人群调查"><meta property="og:url" content="https://blog.diffday.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5.html"><meta property="og:site_name" content="Diffday"><meta property="og:description" content="劳动力人群 就业vs非就业阶段 14亿人口中，就业和非就业年龄段大概是6 vs 4开 非就业阶段人口5.9亿【靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段】 就业段劳动人口8.2亿，如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径7.69亿 pie showData title 人口14.1（亿"><meta property="og:locale" content="zh-CN"><meta property="og:image" content="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240220112557.png"><meta property="article:author" content="DiffDay"><meta property="article:tag"><meta name="twitter:card" content="summary"><meta name="twitter:image" content="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240220112557.png"><meta name="description" content="劳动力人群 就业vs非就业阶段 14亿人口中，就业和非就业年龄段大概是6 vs 4开 非就业阶段人口5.9亿【靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段】 就业段劳动人口8.2亿，如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径7.69亿 pie showData title 人口14.1（亿"><link rel="shortcut icon" href="https://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/diff32.ico"><link rel="canonical" href="https://blog.diffday.com/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%BA%E7%BE%A4%E8%B0%83%E6%9F%A5"><link rel="preconnect" href="//npm.elemecdn.com"/><link rel="preconnect" href="//npm.onmicrosoft.cn"/><link rel="preconnect" href="//www.google-analytics.com" crossorigin=""/><link rel="preconnect" href="//hm.baidu.com"/><link rel="preconnect" href="//busuanzi.ibruce.info"/><meta name="google-site-verification" content="UaMvLIOYuNWHgVq42dlN49RoniU73U6SoqoRnEcit9E"/><meta name="baidu-site-verification" content="code-DN25SBuR8T"/><link rel="stylesheet" href="/css/index.css"><link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@fortawesome/fontawesome-free/css/all.min.css" media="print" onload="this.media='all'"><link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/node-snackbar/dist/snackbar.min.css" media="print" onload="this.media='all'"><link rel="stylesheet" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/@fancyapps/ui/dist/fancybox/fancybox.min.css" media="print" onload="this.media='all'"><script>var _hmt = _hmt || [];
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pageFillDescription: '劳动力人群, 就业vs非就业阶段, 非劳动阶段人口, 总分布, 8.2亿适龄劳动人口, 从三产性质看, 第一产业-1.77亿, 第二产业-2.11亿, 第三产业-3.46亿人, 物流运输, 信息服务业, 金融行业, 通讯行业, 文化产业, 律师, 电子商务, 其它, 图形分列, 从姓资姓社看, 社会主义群体, 财政供养人员, 国企, 现役军人, 图例展示, 资本市场群体, 数量, 五险一金, 未来已来, 引用劳动力人群就业非就业阶段亿人口中就业和非就业年龄段大概是开非就业阶段人口亿靠父母吃退休金的年龄段就业段劳动人口亿如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径亿人口亿就业阶段人口靠父母吃退休金的年龄段非劳动阶段人口储备力量亿岁以下的人口有亿万中小学生亿万在读大学生亿万离退力量亿岁以上老人亿非劳动人口儿童岁下中小学大学生退休总分布人口万岁下儿童中小学大学生工作人群岁以上老人亿适龄劳动人口按统计年鉴抽样统计到劳动力亿人那么还约有人完全不从事任何获取报酬的活动实际上更多点因为岁以后还有一些人返聘或者继续在工作从三产性质看第一产业亿农林牧渔亿人围绕农林牧渔卖饲料卖工具的可不算在内其实第一产业职业门槛并不低这行当对没基础或者没地的人是关闭的第二产业亿含采掘业不含辅助开采制造业不含修理电力燃气及水的生产和供应业建筑业可细分为个行业在年月只有个实现营收和利润正增长电力热力生产和供应业增长最好电力燃气热力生产水再生等投身这些行业会比较有汤喝建筑行业呈下降趋势年建筑行业从业人数减少了剩万不少由放开转向物业服务分类性质发生会变化第三产业亿人物流运输物流运输运货运人有万从业者汽车司机货车司机最多人网约车司机次之网上一种说法没有官方出处出租车司机公交司机除了司机还有其他物流运输从业者快递小哥铁路工作人员的航海人员航空从业者剩下的或许都是外卖小哥物流运输货人货车司机网约车出租车公交车快递小哥铁路人员航海航空外卖信息服务业大概有信息服务业其中程序员产品经理软件测试个和设计师整个行业一边裁员一边招人给年轻人让位这个领域人数上限还有提升空间金融行业金融圈大概有人保险是大头人银行占证劵人剩下的是投行和投融资中介这个圈子里要求的是先会做事业务再会做人升得快但投入也很高做自己佛系舒服也是危险的通讯行业通讯行业人三大运营商占一半中移动人最多联通电信行业平均工资高平均但基层员工收入低可能才月收入差距明显技术和管理人才收入很高文化产业文化产业人各部门机构从业人员从业人数最多的是各地景区工作人员还有产业配套服务人员旅行社酒店按统计年鉴光住宿就数字存疑艺术创作和演出从业人员人负责图书馆公共服务负责美术馆这个板块挣得不多胜在较稳定律师执业律师超过行业平均薪资超过工龄越长越值钱一线收入高也是不平衡的没案子的律师一年下来收入可能还不如外卖小哥还是看谁能掌握更多的优质客户算是高端局既要学历高又要经验好专业和销售能力都要强电子商务电子商务大概有卖家和主播一半的卖家已开播便宜了消费者养活了平台一片厮杀红海亏死一批老板成就了一小部分人如头部主播电商不是均富的开开的比例一直洗牌平台还是卖家都是一样可能几年不赚钱几个月就把之前亏的钱都赚回来了是一个波动不稳定的行业老板在寻找爆款商品员工在寻找爆款老板其它数据无法核实餐饮约莫有从业人员家政文化娱乐体育行业其中北上广深的餐馆最多占全国的图形分列三类产业从业人员亿第一产业农林牧渔第二产业第三产业从年发布的第五次全国经济普查中法人单位的批发零售从业人员万含个体户的话就更多一种说法是达到亿但未见数据官方出处第三产业人员细分万批发零售物流运输信息服务金融通讯文化产业律师餐饮家政体育文化娱乐影视歌游戏演出等电商卖家主播从姓资姓社看社会主义群体财政供养人员参考全国住房公积金年度报告表国家机关和事业单位实缴职工人截止年末全国缴纳机关事业单位养老保险人数在职约理解起来加上离退休约人公务员党委政府人大政协公检法共含警察法院检察院如果加上参公党群工会妇联残联作协人员实际上这批按定义不是公务员则可能达到事业单位教师是事业编里最多的人中小学老师已经饱和了医生学历要求高注册护士药师在职财政饭万国家机关四大班子公检法参公党群工会妇联残联作协事业单位国企国企含电网烟草邮政石油石化天然气现役军人其中军人武警图例展示事业单位中群体最大是教育行业大部分是教师占比注册护士占比医生占比社会主义群体概分单位万国家机关参公党群作协事业单位国企军人从第次经济普查数据看年底教育行业人员增长到卫生人员增长到社会主义群体细分单位万国家机关参公党群作协教师医生注册护士药师事业单位其它电网烟草邮政石化国企其它军人武警资本市场群体数量除开上面的社会主义群体再除去农业兄弟亿无产阶级打工人最多亿个体工商户亿灵活就业者也就是没单位给交社保灵活就业者不包含个体户在民企老老实实上班的最多亿亿就业人口亿编制人员亿灵活就业亿个体户亿一产亿姓资群体亿农业兄弟个体工商户灵活就业民企五险一金劳动法选择性生效五险一金能给还着实是小部分人全国缴纳失业险的亿买了社保就一定有失业险公务员和事业单位不用交失业险那么正在上班的人中加上公务员事业单位合计有社保的不到亿保底机关公积金累积城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数是亿缴纳公积金的人数就更少了亿就业人群社会保障亿在职社保公积金在职有社保有社保已退休未来已来从目前的就业人口数量就可以支撑我们经济的正常运行甚至实现稳步增长反身一想那么当前未能成功的就业人口其背后的经济价值正在趋近于就业未来甚至具有一定的社会福利意义福利的属性决定了被剩下的人即使找到岗位收入也是有限的科技是第一生产力也是破坏力破坏生产关系有论调新技术会创造新的岗位但这个观点的正确性仅限于宏观层面把目光放到微观会发现新岗位和旧岗位承接的不是同一批人被电商挤压回家的百货人并未成为物流人和客服人因为新产业只要年轻人我们面临的问题是史诗级的是人类首次面临亿级别人口的产业升级破局之道必定是组合拳转移支付产业升级可看作传统部门向现代部门让利的过程生产袜子的企业关闭了换成生产芯片的企业不一定是袜子卖不动了而是生产芯片对社会来说更有效率袜子厂的员工理论上应得到一定程度的补贴等同于过去的给农民减负都是财富上的转移支付今天换了一个名字防返贫对内分流只能用三产来承接教育分流和免费职业培训就是想让被淘汰的旧产业者有机会转向围绕新产业衍生出来的生产性服务业或基础服务业里对外输出向新兴市场输出是每一个发达国家的必经之路与低端产业出口相匹配的就是低端就业人口的输出我们曾是日本最大的海外输出市场之一从商品到生产线甚至技术人员日本是一并出口大量的技术人员来到中国没有我们这个庞大的市场这些人在日本国内也是要被淘汰掉的如果你没在产业升级的快车道上大概率就在产业淘汰的车轮之下作为普通人未来的选择无非三种自我放弃投身三产海外出征引用国家统计局中国统计年鉴国家统计局人口和就业指标口径说明',
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href="/categories/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A/" itemprop="url">经济社会</a><a href="/tags/%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A/" tabindex="-1" itemprop="url">行业</a><h1 id="CrawlerTitle" itemprop="name headline">中国就业人群调查</h1><span itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">DiffDay</span><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2024-02-20T03:40:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-02-20 11:40:00">2024-02-20</time><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2025-02-08T03:44:20.000Z" title="更新于 2025-02-08 11:44:20">2025-02-08</time></header><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/hint.css/2.4.1/hint.min.css"><p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src="/img/404.jpg"" data-lazy-src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240220112557.png" alt=""></p>
<h1>劳动力人群</h1>
<h2 id="就业vs非就业阶段">就业vs非就业阶段</h2>
<p>14亿人口中，<strong>就业和非就业年龄段大概是6 vs 4开</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>非就业阶段人口5.9亿【靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段】</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>就业段劳动人口8.2亿，如果女性退休年龄下探则就业人口应会对齐下探至统计年鉴的口径7.69亿</p>
</li>
</ul>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 人口14.1（亿）
"就业阶段人口" : 8.2
"靠父母+吃退休金的年龄段" : 5.9</pre>
<h2 id="非劳动阶段人口">非劳动阶段人口</h2>
<ul>
<li>储备力量3.1亿
<ul>
<li>6岁以下的人口有0.78亿（7788万）</li>
<li>中小学生1.85亿（18534万）</li>
<li>在读大学生0.47亿（4655万）</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>离退力量2.8亿：60岁以上老人</li>
</ul>
<span id="more"></span>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 5.9（亿）非劳动人口
"儿童（6岁下）" : 0.78
"中小学" : 1.85
"大学生" : 0.47
"退休": 2.8</pre>
<h2 id="总分布">总分布</h2>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 人口140000（万）
"6岁下儿童" : 7788
"中小学" : 18534
"大学生" : 4655
"工作人群": 82000
"60岁以上老人": 28000</pre>
<h1>8.2亿适龄劳动人口</h1>
<p>按2022统计年鉴，抽样统计到劳动力7.6863亿人<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" rel="footnote"><span class="hint--top hint--error hint--medium hint--rounded hint--bounce" aria-label="国家统计局 [中国统计年鉴2023](https://stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2023/indexch.htm)
">[1]</span></a></sup>，那么还<font color="blur">约有5000w+人完全不从事任何获取报酬的活动</font>，实际上更多点，因为60岁以后，还有一些人返聘或者继续在工作。</p>
<h2 id="从三产性质看">从三产性质看</h2>
<h3 id="第一产业-1-77亿">第一产业-1.77亿</h3>
<p>（农林牧渔）1.77亿人，围绕农林牧渔卖饲料卖工具的可不算在内，其实<font color="blur">第一产业职业门槛并不低，这行当对没基础或者没地的人是关闭的</font></p>
<h3 id="第二产业-2-11亿">第二产业-2.11亿</h3>
<p><strong>含采掘业（不含辅助开采）、制造业（不含修理）、电力、燃气及水的生产和供应业、建筑业</strong>。</p>
<ul>
<li>可细分为41个行业，在23年1-10月只有14个实现营收和利润正增长，电力热力生产和供应业增长最好（电力，燃气，热力生产，水再生等）。投身这些行业会比较有汤喝</li>
<li>建筑行业呈下降趋势，2022年建筑行业从业人数减少了141w，剩5142万。不少由放开转向物业服务，分类性质发生会变化。</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="第三产业-3-46亿人">第三产业-3.46亿人</h3>
<h4 id="物流运输">物流运输</h4>
<blockquote>
<p>物流运输（运货+运人）有5000万+从业者</p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>汽车司机
<ul>
<li><strong>货车司机最多，1800w人</strong></li>
<li>网约车司机次之，657w（网上一种说法1900w没有官方出处）</li>
<li>出租车司机 270w</li>
<li>100w公交司机</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>除了司机，还有其他物流运输从业者
<ul>
<li>450w快递小哥</li>
<li>205w铁路工作人员</li>
<li>190w的航海人员</li>
<li>60w航空从业者</li>
<li>剩下的或许都是外卖小哥1268w</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 物流运输（货+人）5000w
"货车司机" : 1800
"网约车" : 657
"出租车" : 270
"公交车": 100
"快递小哥": 450
"铁路人员": 205
"航海": 190
"航空": 50
"外卖": 1268</pre>
<h4 id="信息服务业">信息服务业</h4>
<p>大概有1000w信息服务业，其中600~700w程序员，70w产品经理，50w软件测试，100w个UI和设计师。整个行业一边裁员一边招人，给年轻人让位。这个领域人数上限还有提升空间</p>
<h4 id="金融行业">金融行业</h4>
<p><font color="tomato">金融圈大概有1000w人，保险是大头，570w人，银行占300w，证劵35w人，剩下的是投行和投融资中介</font>。这个圈子里要求的是先会做事（业务），再会做人（升得快但投入也很高），做自己（佛系）舒服也是危险的</p>
<h4 id="通讯行业">通讯行业</h4>
<p><strong>通讯行业200w人，三大运营商占一半</strong>，中移动人最多45w，联通24w，电信28w。行业平均工资高，平均25w~31w，但基层员工收入低，可能才3k/月，收入差距明显，技术和管理人才收入很高</p>
<h4 id="文化产业">文化产业</h4>
<p>文化产业420w人，各部门机构从业人员72.5w，从业人数最多的是各地景区工作人员，147w，还有产业配套服务人员（旅行社酒店）134w（按统计年鉴光住宿就162w，数字存疑），艺术创作和演出从业人员41.5w，6w人负责图书馆公共服务，0.64w负责美术馆。这个板块挣得不多胜在较稳定。</p>
<h4 id="律师">律师</h4>
<p>执业律师超过65w，行业平均薪资超过15w，工龄越长越值钱，一线收入高。也是不平衡的，没案子的律师一年下来收入可能还不如外卖小哥，还是看谁能掌握更多的优质客户，算是高端局，既要学历高，又要经验好，专业和销售能力都要强。</p>
<h4 id="电子商务">电子商务</h4>
<p>电子商务大概有720w卖家和337w主播，一半的卖家已开播，便宜了消费者，养活了平台，一片厮杀红海，亏死一批老板，成就了一小部分人（如头部主播）。<font color="blur">电商不是均富的，82开，91开的比例，一直洗牌</font>，平台还是卖家都是一样，可能几年不赚钱，几个月就把之前亏的钱都赚回来了，<u>是一个波动不稳定的行业。老板在寻找爆款商品，员工在寻找爆款老板</u>。</p>
<h4 id="其它">其它</h4>
<p>[数据无法核实] 餐饮约莫有700w从业人员，家政3000w，文化娱乐2000w，体育行业490w。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>其中北上广深的餐馆最多，占全国的 23%</p>
</blockquote>
<h3 id="图形分列">图形分列</h3>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 三类产业从业人员（亿）
"第一产业（农林牧渔）" : 1.77
"第二产业" : 2.11
"第三产业" : 3.46</pre>
<blockquote>
<p>从24 年发布的第五次全国经济普查中，法人单位的批发零售从业人员5326 万，含个体户的话就更多，一种说法是达到 1.35 亿（但未见数据官方出处）</p>
</blockquote>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData
title 第三产业人员细分（34600万）
"批发零售": 5326
"物流运输" : 5000
"信息服务" : 1000
"金融" : 1000
"通讯": 200
"文化产业": 420
"律师": 65
"餐饮": 700
"家政": 3000
"体育": 490
"文化娱乐（影视歌游戏演出等）": 2000
"电商卖家": 720
"主播": 337</pre>
<h2 id="从姓资姓社看">从姓资姓社看</h2>
<h3 id="社会主义群体">社会主义群体</h3>
<h4 id="财政供养人员">财政供养人员</h4>
<blockquote>
<p>参考全国住房公积金2021年度报告表，国家机关和事业单位实缴职工4654.61w人。</p>
<p>截止2022年末全国缴纳机关事业单位养老保险人数5953w，<font color="dodgerblue">在职约4500w，理解起来加上离退休约6000w人</font>。</p>
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>
<p>公务员：党委、政府、人大、政协+公检法 共700w（含220w警察，法院30w，检察院20w）。如果加上参公，党群，工会妇联残联作协人员（实际上这批按定义不是公务员）则可能达到1300w</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>事业单位：3300w。</p>
<ul>
<li>教师是事业编里最多的，1884w人，中小学老师已经饱和了。</li>
<li>医生440w（学历要求高），注册护士522w，药师53w。</li>
</ul>
<pre class="mermaid"> pie showData title 在职财政饭（4600万）
"国家机关（四大班子公检法）" : 700
"参公：党群工会妇联残联作协":600
"事业单位" : 3300</pre>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="国企">国企</h4>
<ul>
<li>国企：4000w
<ul>
<li>
<p>含电网90w</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>烟草50w</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>邮政90w</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>石油石化天然气200w</p>
</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h4 id="现役军人">现役军人</h4>
<p>270w，其中军人200w，武警66w</p>
<h4 id="图例展示">图例展示</h4>
<blockquote>
<p>事业单位中群体最大是教育行业，大部分是教师，占比57%。注册护士占比 15.8%，医生占比 13.3%</p>
</blockquote>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData title 社会主义群体概分（单位万）
"国家机关" : 700
"参公党群...作协":600
"事业单位" : 3300
"国企" : 4000
"军人": 270</pre>
<blockquote>
<p>从第 5 次经济普查数据看，23 年底教育行业人员增长到 2241w，卫生人员增长到 1110w</p>
</blockquote>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData title 社会主义群体细分（单位万）
"国家机关" : 700
"参公党群...作协":600
"教师" : 1884
"医生" : 440
"注册护士": 522
"药师": 53
"事业单位其它": 400
"电网":90
"烟草":50
"邮政":90
"石化":200
"国企其它":3570
"军人":200
"武警":66</pre>
<h3 id="资本市场群体">资本市场群体</h3>
<h4 id="数量">数量</h4>
<p>除开上面的社会主义群体，再除去农业兄弟1.77亿，无产阶级打工人最多。<strong>1.14亿个体工商户，2亿灵活就业者</strong>（也就是没单位给交社保，灵活就业者不包含个体户），<strong>在民企老老实实上班的最多2亿</strong>（7.7亿就业人口-0.8亿编制人员-2亿灵活就业-1.1亿个体户-1.77亿一产=2.1亿）</p>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData title 姓资群体（亿）
"农业兄弟" : 1.77
"个体工商户":1.14
"灵活就业" : 2
"民企" : 2.1</pre>
<h2 id="五险一金">五险一金</h2>
<p>劳动法选择性生效，五险一金能给还着实是小部分人</p>
<ul>
<li>全国缴纳失业险的2.3亿<sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" rel="footnote"><span class="hint--top hint--error hint--medium hint--rounded hint--bounce" aria-label="国家统计局 [中国统计年鉴2023](https://stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2023/indexch.htm)
">[1]</span></a></sup>，买了社保就一定有失业险。公务员和事业单位不用交失业险。那么正在上班的人中加上公务员事业单位合计有社保的不到3亿（保底2.76=0.46机关公积金+2.3）</li>
<li><u>累积</u><strong>城镇职工基本养老保险参保人数是5亿</strong><sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" rel="footnote"><span class="hint--top hint--error hint--medium hint--rounded hint--bounce" aria-label="国家统计局 [中国统计年鉴2023](https://stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2023/indexch.htm)
">[1]</span></a></sup></li>
<li>缴纳公积金的人数就更少了，1.64亿</li>
</ul>
<pre class="mermaid">pie showData title 就业人群社会保障（亿）
"在职社保+公积金" : 1.64
"在职有社保":2.76
"有社保已退休" : 2</pre>
<h1>未来已来</h1>
<p>从目前的就业人口数量就可以支撑我们经济的正常运行，甚至实现稳步增长。<font color="blur">反身一想，那么当前未能成功的就业人口其背后的经济价值正在趋近于 0</font>。</p>
<p>就业未来甚至具有一定的社会福利意义，福利的属性决定了被剩下的人，即使找到岗位，收入也是有限的。</p>
<p>科技是第一生产力，也是破坏力，破坏生产关系。有论调新技术会创造新的岗位，但这个观点的正确性仅限于宏观层面，把目光放到微观会发现，<strong>新岗位和旧岗位承接的不是同一批人</strong>，被电商挤压回家的百货人并未成为物流人和客服人，<strong>因为新产业只要年轻人</strong>。</p>
<p>我们面临的问题是史诗级的，是人类首次面临 10 亿级别人口的产业升级，破局之道必定是组合拳：</p>
<ol>
<li>转移支付：产业升级可看作传统部门向现代部门让利的过程，生产袜子的企业关闭了换成生产芯片的企业，不一定是袜子卖不动了，而是生产芯片对社会来说更有效率。袜子厂的员工理论上应得到一定程度的补贴，等同于过去的给农民减负，都是财富上的转移支付，今天换了一个名字：防返贫</li>
<li>对内分流：只能用三产来承接，教育分流和免费职业培训，就是想让被淘汰的旧产业者有机会转向围绕新产业衍生出来的生产性服务业或基础服务业里。</li>
<li>对外输出：向新兴市场输出，是每一个发达国家的必经之路。与低端产业出口相匹配的就是低端就业人口的输出。我们曾是日本最大的海外输出市场之一，从商品到生产线甚至技术人员，日本是一并出口，大量的技术人员来到中国，没有我们这个庞大的市场，这些人在日本国内也是要被淘汰掉的。</li>
</ol>
<p>如果你没在产业升级的快车道上，大概率就在产业淘汰的车轮之下。作为普通人，未来的选择无非三种：自我放弃、投身三产、海外出征。</p>
<h1>引用</h1>
<div id="footnotes"><hr><div id="footnotelist"><ol style="list-style: none; padding-left: 0; margin-left: 40px"><li id="fn:1"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">1.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">国家统计局 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2023/indexch.htm">中国统计年鉴2023</a><a href="#fnref:1" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li><li id="fn:2"><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; padding-right: 10px; margin-left: -40px">2.</span><span style="display: inline-block; vertical-align: top; margin-left: 10px;">国家统计局 <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/hd/cjwtjd/202302/t20230207_1902273.html">人口和就业指标口径说明</a><a href="#fnref:2" rev="footnote"> ↩</a></span></li></ol></div></div></article><div class="post-copyright"><div class="copyright-cc-box"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-copyright"></i></div><div 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class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-bars"></i><span>文章目录</span><span class="toc-percentage"></span></div><div class="toc-content"><ol class="toc"><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">1.</span> <span class="toc-text">劳动力人群</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9Avs%E9%9D%9E%E5%B0%B1%E4%B8%9A%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5"><span class="toc-number">1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">就业vs非就业阶段</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%9D%9E%E5%8A%B3%E5%8A%A8%E9%98%B6%E6%AE%B5%E4%BA%BA%E5%8F%A3"><span class="toc-number">1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">非劳动阶段人口</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%80%BB%E5%88%86%E5%B8%83"><span class="toc-number">1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">总分布</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-1"><a class="toc-link"><span class="toc-number">2.</span> <span class="toc-text">8.2亿适龄劳动人口</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E6%80%A7%E8%B4%A8%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">从三产性质看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%80%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-1-77%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">第一产业-1.77亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%BA%8C%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-2-11%E4%BA%BF"><span class="toc-number">2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">第二产业-2.11亿</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%AC%AC%E4%B8%89%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A-3-46%E4%BA%BF%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">第三产业-3.46亿人</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%89%A9%E6%B5%81%E8%BF%90%E8%BE%93"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">物流运输</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E6%9C%8D%E5%8A%A1%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">信息服务业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%87%91%E8%9E%8D%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">金融行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">通讯行业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E6%96%87%E5%8C%96%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.5.</span> <span class="toc-text">文化产业</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%BE%8B%E5%B8%88"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.6.</span> <span class="toc-text">律师</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%94%B5%E5%AD%90%E5%95%86%E5%8A%A1"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.7.</span> <span class="toc-text">电子商务</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%85%B6%E5%AE%83"><span class="toc-number">2.1.3.8.</span> <span class="toc-text">其它</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E5%BD%A2%E5%88%86%E5%88%97"><span class="toc-number">2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图形分列</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-2"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E4%BB%8E%E5%A7%93%E8%B5%84%E5%A7%93%E7%A4%BE%E7%9C%8B"><span class="toc-number">2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">从姓资姓社看</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%BB%E4%B9%89%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">社会主义群体</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B4%A2%E6%94%BF%E4%BE%9B%E5%85%BB%E4%BA%BA%E5%91%98"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.1.</span> <span class="toc-text">财政供养人员</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BD%E4%BC%81"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">国企</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E7%8E%B0%E5%BD%B9%E5%86%9B%E4%BA%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.3.</span> <span class="toc-text">现役军人</span></a></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-4"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E5%9B%BE%E4%BE%8B%E5%B1%95%E7%A4%BA"><span class="toc-number">2.2.1.4.</span> <span class="toc-text">图例展示</span></a></li></ol></li><li class="toc-item toc-level-3"><a class="toc-link" href="#%E8%B5%84%E6%9C%AC%E5%B8%82%E5%9C%BA%E7%BE%A4%E4%BD%93"><span class="toc-number">2.2.2.</span> <span class="toc-text">资本市场群体</span></a><ol class="toc-child"><li class="toc-item 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window.lazyLoadInstance && window.lazyLoadInstance.update()
window.pjax && window.pjax.refresh($dom)
}
const getComment = () => {
const serverURL = 'https://uwklgzjj.lc-cn-e1-shared.com'
var settings = {
"method": "GET",
"headers": {
"X-LC-Id": 'uwklgzjj0IepCMXNYCU3t9Ah-9Nh9j0Va',
"X-LC-Key": 'jRMVc9QS0SBr1L9heA2V0m4q',
"Content-Type": "application/json"
},
}
fetch(`${serverURL}/1.1/classes/Comment?limit=6&order=-createdAt`,settings)
.then(response => response.json())
.then(data => {
const valineArray = data.results.map(function (e) {
return {
'avatar': getIcon(e.QQAvatar, e.mail),
'content': changeContent(e.comment),
'nick': e.nick,
'url': e.url + '#' + e.objectId,
'date': e.updatedAt,
}
})
saveToLocal.set('valine-newest-comments', JSON.stringify(valineArray), 10/(60*24))
generateHtml(valineArray)
}).catch(e => {
const $dom = document.querySelector('#card-newest-comments .aside-list')
$dom.textContent= "无法获取评论，请确认相关配置是否正确"
})
}
const newestCommentInit = () => {
if (document.querySelector('#card-newest-comments .aside-list')) {
const data = saveToLocal.get('valine-newest-comments')
if (data) {
generateHtml(JSON.parse(data))
} else {
getComment()
}
}
}
newestCommentInit()
document.addEventListener('pjax:complete', newestCommentInit)
})</script><script>var visitorMail = "[email protected]";
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var pjax = new Pjax({
elements: 'a:not([target="_blank"])',
selectors: pjaxSelectors,
cacheBust: false,
analytics: true,
scrollRestoration: false
})
document.addEventListener('pjax:send', function () {
// removeEventListener scroll
anzhiyu.removeGlobalFnEvent('pjax')
anzhiyu.removeGlobalFnEvent('themeChange')
document.getElementById('rightside').classList.remove('rightside-show')
if (window.aplayers) {
for (let i = 0; i < window.aplayers.length; i++) {
if (!window.aplayers[i].options.fixed) {
window.aplayers[i].destroy()
}
}
}
typeof typed === 'object' && typed.destroy()
//reset readmode
const $bodyClassList = document.body.classList
$bodyClassList.contains('read-mode') && $bodyClassList.remove('read-mode')
})
document.addEventListener('pjax:complete', function () {
window.refreshFn()
document.querySelectorAll('script[data-pjax]').forEach(item => {
const newScript = document.createElement('script')
const content = item.text || item.textContent || item.innerHTML || ""
Array.from(item.attributes).forEach(attr => newScript.setAttribute(attr.name, attr.value))
newScript.appendChild(document.createTextNode(content))
item.parentNode.replaceChild(newScript, item)
})
GLOBAL_CONFIG.islazyload && window.lazyLoadInstance.update()
typeof chatBtnFn === 'function' && chatBtnFn()
typeof panguInit === 'function' && panguInit()
// google analytics
typeof gtag === 'function' && gtag('config', 'G-X0MW6B53JB', {'page_path': window.location.pathname});
// baidu analytics
typeof _hmt === 'object' && _hmt.push(['_trackPageview',window.location.pathname]);
typeof loadMeting === 'function' && document.getElementsByClassName('aplayer').length && loadMeting()
// prismjs
typeof Prism === 'object' && Prism.highlightAll()
})
document.addEventListener('pjax:error', e => {
if (e.request.status === 404) {
pjax.loadUrl('/404.html')
}
})</script><script async data-pjax src="//busuanzi.ibruce.info/busuanzi/2.3/busuanzi.pure.mini.js"></script><script charset="UTF-8" src="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/npm/anzhiyu-theme-static/accesskey/accesskey.min.js"></script></div><div id="popup-window"><div class="popup-window-title">通知</div><div class="popup-window-divider"></div><div class="popup-window-content"><div class="popup-tip">你好呀</div><div class="popup-link"><i class="anzhiyufont anzhiyu-icon-arrow-circle-right"></i></div></div></div></body></html>