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pageFillDescription: '货币出口挤压一切, 大背景下资本的选择, 斗争与供需, 历史的回旋镖, 个体的追求, 工业化的厚黑社会学规则, 美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱货币出口挤压一切在金本位时美元相当于代金券其它国家想获得美元也很难美当时还是世界第一工业大国是贸易顺差国可自布雷顿森林体系瓦解脱离金本位后美国就成了彻底的货币输出国当一个国家能出口货币且货币生产成本低廉低于绝大部分工业品生产成本比西班牙开采美洲金银矿低多了就会倾向于只出口货币从而挤压其它商品的出口如你把货币也当成商品那么美国仍旧是世界第一出口大国上一个货币输出国是西班牙在美洲开采大量金银成为货币洼地造成它手工业成本大幅上升只需要输出金银就能换回欧洲和中国的商品断绝了工业革命的希望所谓世界贸易本身就是在比较优势的基础上进行交换通过出口货币换取其他国家的原材料和工业品这种趋势是制造业回流的最大阻碍想要扭转这种趋势就是在对抗人性就像沙特科威特在油气禀赋下只有傻子才玩制造业一样更何况油气还有竞争对手世界货币可只有美国能生产生产成本比油气开采还低廉恢复制造业难度可想而知只剩两条路要么通过生产力发展技术提高到一定程度比如和无人生产全面落地以暴利对抗货币出口利润要么就大幅提高货币生产成本才有恢复工业制造的基础阿美莉卡喊制造业回流是精英脑子了吗美国真正的主人哪有意愿重振制造业他们只是喊一个虚假的口号把中国推到前面制造中国人抢了美国工作机会的虚假话题给红脖子对工业衰退的愤怒一个发泄口而已让美国去工业化的不是别人正是美国自己的金融资本把美国工厂搬到海外借美元潮汐成为欧日韩的主人不仅有两个日本也有两个美国一个本土美国一个金融资本控制的海外美国大背景下资本的选择在上世纪年代当时美英按着资本家给底层让利这种状态自然不是资产阶级愿意承担的冷战进入末期当时第二大社会主义国家的倒向使得西方找到一个长期靠谱的新路数里根撒切尔的新自由主义经济配合当时西方的长期高通胀高失业工人运动也到了低潮期国内去工业化国外搞全球化一举多得提供利润打压工人阶级一箭双雕斗争与供需一直有种说法西方社会福利是跟苏联竞争的结果或者迫于苏联的压力这种说法是错误的一切事务的转化内因是根本外因起到推动作用西方社会的福利是长期斗争来的也受供求关系制约赫鲁晓夫后的苏联反而是放弃革命的反面典型对自己内部的工人运动也是打的像狗一样年代之前向全世界输出革命的是中国年代之后或者说年代末期春天来了一战前生产力增长遭遇瓶颈出现劳动力过剩但一战后特别是二战后生产力再度爆发增长美欧对高素质劳动力的需求超过了供给都遇到了高素质劳动力不足的问题日韩有高素质劳动力但还满足不了需求东南亚南亚非洲要么素质太低识字率低或文化太懒要么战乱频繁要么政府效率低所以整体上工人议价能力提高把产业都搬国外抱歉日韩只能接一部分当时还有东西方冷战的压力最理智的选择是提高本国的福利待遇这样工人能给各阶层生产足够的产品分给工人的比例提高了上层拿到手里的财富也足够过奢侈生活在上世纪年代苏联尚没解体但社会主义阵营已开始衰退里根撒切尔开始砍社会福利了跟中国的开放也有一定的关系大量的高素质劳动力潜力他们搞的新自由主义经济实际上是靠着透支未来做成的超发国债寅吃卯粮里根上台国债亿卸任下台万亿美从债权国转为借债国自然能做到两面光本来这种玩法长久不了到了年代就要出问题结果苏联轰然倒塌苏的倒台核心是自己背叛了自己的理想吃了一波大饱让他们错误的认为这是一场正确的道路甚至还喊出了文明终结的口号没有了外部压力新自由主义金融垄断资本主义它们可不关心什么地区和民族发展只在乎赚取时间的速度带来的内部问题和撕裂终会带来革命或危机历史的回旋镖可这条国内去工业化的路也达成了军工凋敝自我兵解像北宋一样将压迫的屠刀朝向支撑自己力量阶级的时候最终是劳资内患得到解决但会被外敌攻陷可这条路想回头都难个体的追求去工业化往往不全是国家的选择还是个体的选择美国人在上个世纪年代就形成过中产阶级的高覆盖比例这些中产中的不少人就是产业工人而来但是到了他们的下一代这群孩子不再愿意进工厂因为他们父母花钱让他们受教育的原因就是让他不用再进厂赚钱所以他们宁可当健身教练也不会进厂美国产业工人工资高是社会治理抗争的结果一方面不愿意干的人确实太多了工业的核心是利润空间直接服务人能获得的收益显然要高于服务机械当聘用人工成本影响利润空间时工厂就会主动搬走现在科技服务业也是如此在新兴高科技公司中知识产权确权体系才是最重要的生产环节知识产权的确权往往会极大程度激发高级工人的积极性高科技产业如此令人着迷的原因就是因为个人因素占比更大工人的稀缺性更高雇主也愿意为了高额汇报付出更大的代价这个阶段的工人们就有机会跨越阶级但一旦过了知识产权的确权风口产业结构发生改变新晋的工人又会承接了打灰的工作当农业化社会彻底进入工业化之后工人就替代了农民的位置所有人都在等着压榨中低端制造业工人的价值吃饭这种社会分层的事情第一代中产中的聪明人心知肚明他们不想让自己的孩子变成代价所以会主动培养自己的孩子脱离低端制造工业化的厚黑社会学规则世界任何一个地域想保持工业化且不断往工厂输送廉价劳动力都只有个办法让一部分潜在年轻人的父母处于贫困线左右保持工人及其家庭的饥饿感引进移民贫困国家来的移民多受过苦难对这些人来说最重要的是吃饭而不是工作本身压低整体教育水平对教育进行筛选分流让部分年轻人无法接受高等教育跳不出循环并且构建信息茧房让打工人只能内部比价双层夹击下无法脱离内部工业循环降低社会福利期许对产业工人和农民发极少的退休金同时调高退休年龄这群过过苦日子又有孩子的人什么都不会抱怨有想法都会憋在心里老了之后即便有一万个不情愿也会选择进厂打工社会福利化是工业化大杀器有了最低保障人们会天然的拒绝逆人性事件背上债务杀死一个人最好的办法不是肉体而是灵魂房贷加上孩子的软肋贷就是逆人性的开始也是进厂的开始甚至说负债不是目的让大家好好工作才是精髓把工作理由描述的再好市面上绝大多数工作也都是基础工作薪资待遇一般美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱美国在经历工业化高峰美元霸权确立后导致民众没有辛苦从事体力劳动的动力而更倾向于从事金融医生律师等高收入服务行业美国工业创新能力的衰败产业空心化的本质原因是基于美国社会发展水平下的民众选择这是美元霸权的福利也是美元霸权的代价',
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href="/tags/%E7%BB%8F%E6%B5%8E/" tabindex="-1" itemprop="url">经济</a><h1 id="CrawlerTitle" itemprop="name headline">去工业化之辨</h1><span itemprop="author" itemscope itemtype="http://schema.org/Person">DiffDay</span><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2024-06-17T10:28:00.000Z" title="发表于 2024-06-17 18:28:00">2024-06-17</time><time itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" datetime="2024-11-20T03:31:39.000Z" title="更新于 2024-11-20 11:31:39">2024-11-20</time></header><link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/hint.css/2.4.1/hint.min.css"><p><img src= "data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7" onerror="this.onerror=null,this.src="/img/404.jpg"" data-lazy-src="http://cdn.diffday.com/picgo/20240617181026.png" alt="去工业化"></p>
<h2 id="货币出口挤压一切">货币出口挤压一切</h2>
<p>在金本位时，美元相当于代金券，其它国家想获得美元也很难，美当时还是世界第一工业大国，是贸易顺差国。可自布雷顿森林体系瓦解脱离金本位后，美国就成了彻底的货币输出国，<u>当一个国家能出口货币且货币生产成本低廉</u>（低于绝大部分工业品生产成本，比西班牙开采美洲金银矿低多了），<u>就会倾向于只出口货币</u>，从而挤压其它商品的出口。</p>
<blockquote>
<p><font color="blur">如你把货币也当成商品，那么美国仍旧是世界第一出口大国</font></p>
</blockquote>
<p><u>上一个货币输出国是西班牙</u>，在美洲开采大量金银，成为货币洼地，造成它手工业成本大幅上升，<u>只需要输出金银，就能换回欧洲和中国的商品，断绝了工业革命的希望</u>。</p>
<p>所谓世界贸易，本身就是在比较优势的基础上，进行交换。<font color="blur">通过出口货币换取其他国家的原材料和工业品，这种趋势是制造业回流的最大阻碍</font>，想要扭转这种趋势就是在对抗人性。<font color="dodgerblue">就像沙特科威特在油气禀赋下只有傻子才玩制造业一样</font>。更何况油气还有竞争对手，世界货币可只有美国能生产，生产成本比油气开采还低廉，恢复制造业，难度可想而知，只剩两条路。</p>
<ol>
<li>要么通过生产力发展技术提高到一定程度，比如 AI 和无人生产全面落地，以暴利对抗货币出口利润</li>
<li>要么就大幅提高货币生产成本。才有恢复工业制造的基础</li>
</ol>
<p>阿美莉卡喊制造业回流，是精英脑子short了吗？No，美国真正的主人哪有意愿重振制造业，他们只是喊一个虚假的口号，把中国推到前面，制造中国人抢了美国工作机会的虚假话题，给红脖子对工业衰退的愤怒一个发泄口而已。<font color="blur">让美国去工业化的不是别人，正是美国自己的金融资本</font>，把美国工厂搬到海外，借美元潮汐成为欧日韩的主人。不仅有两个日本，也有两个美国，一个本土美国，一个金融资本控制的海外美国。</p>
<h2 id="大背景下资本的选择">大背景下资本的选择</h2>
<p>在上世纪80 年代，当时美英按着资本家给底层让利，这种状态自然不是资产阶级愿意承担的，冷战进入末期，当时第二大社会主义国家的倒向，使得西方找到一个长期靠谱的新路数：里根撒切尔的新自由主义经济（配合当时西方的长期高通胀高失业，工人运动也到了低潮期）。国内去工业化，国外搞全球化，一举多得，提供利润，打压工人阶级一箭双雕。</p>
<h3 id="斗争与供需">斗争与供需</h3>
<span id="more"></span>
<p>一直有种说法，西方社会福利是跟苏联竞争的结果或者迫于苏联的压力，这种说法是错误的，一切事务的转化，内因是根本，外因起到推动作用。西方社会的福利，是长期斗争来的，也受供求关系制约。赫鲁晓夫后的苏联反而是放弃革命的反面典型，对自己内部的工人运动也是打的像狗一样。80 年代之前，向全世界输出革命的是中国，80 年代之后或者说 70 年代末期，春天来了。</p>
<p>一战前生产力增长遭遇瓶颈，出现劳动力过剩，但一战后特别是二战后，生产力再度爆发增长，美欧<u>对高素质劳动力的需求超过了供给</u>，都遇到了高素质劳动力不足的问题。日韩有高素质劳动力但还满足不了需求，东南亚南亚非洲要么素质太低（识字率低或文化太懒），要么战乱频繁，要么政府效率低，所以整体上工人议价能力提高。<font color="dodgerblue">把产业都搬国外？抱歉，日韩只能接一部分，当时还有东西方冷战的压力</font>，最理智的选择是，提高本国的福利待遇，这样工人能给各阶层生产足够的产品，分给工人的比例提高了，上层拿到手里的财富也足够过奢侈生活。</p>
<p>在上世纪80 年代苏联尚没解体，但社会主义阵营已开始衰退，里根撒切尔开始砍社会福利了，跟中国的开放也有一定的关系（大量的高素质劳动力潜力）。他们搞的新自由主义经济实际上是靠着透支未来做成的，超发国债寅吃卯粮（里根上台国债 9000亿，卸任下台2.6 万亿，美从债权国转为借债国），自然能做到两面光。本来这种玩法，长久不了，到了 90 年代就要出问题，<font color="tomato">结果苏联轰然倒塌（苏的倒台核心是自己背叛了自己的理想），吃了一波大饱，让他们错误的认为这是一场正确的道路，甚至还喊出了文明终结的口号</font>。</p>
<p>没有了外部压力，新自由主义 $\longrightarrow$ 金融垄断资本主义，它们可不关心什么地区和民族发展，只在乎赚取时间的速度，带来的内部问题和撕裂终会带来革命或危机。</p>
<h3 id="历史的回旋镖">历史的回旋镖</h3>
<p>可这条国内去工业化的路，也达成了军工凋敝，自我兵解。像北宋一样，将压迫的屠刀朝向支撑自己力量阶级的时候，最终是劳资内患得到解决，但会被外敌攻陷，可这条路想回头都难。</p>
<h2 id="个体的追求">个体的追求</h2>
<p><strong>去工业化往往不全是国家的选择，还是个体的选择</strong>。美国人在上个世纪80年代就形成过中产阶级的高覆盖比例，这些中产中的不少人，就是产业工人而来，但是到了他们的下一代，这群孩子不再愿意进工厂。因为他们父母花钱让他们受教育的原因，就是让他不用再进厂赚钱，所以他们<strong>宁可当健身教练也不会进厂</strong>。美国产业工人工资高，是社会治理抗争的结果，一方面不愿意干的人确实太多了。</p>
<p>工业的核心是利润空间，<font color="dodgerblue">直接服务人能获得的收益显然要高于服务机械</font>，当聘用人工成本影响利润空间时，工厂就会主动搬走。</p>
<p>现在科技服务业也是如此，在新兴高科技公司中，知识产权确权体系才是最重要的生产环节，知识产权的确权往往会极大程度激发高级工人的积极性，<font color="dodgerblue">高科技产业如此令人着迷的原因就是因为个人因素占比更大</font>，<u>工人的稀缺性更高，雇主也愿意为了高额汇报付出更大的代价</u>。这个阶段的工人们就有机会跨越阶级，但<font color="tomato">一旦过了知识产权的确权风口，产业结构发生改变，新晋的工人又会承接了打灰的工作</font>。</p>
<p><font color="blur">当农业化社会彻底进入工业化之后，工人就替代了农民的位置，所有人都在等着压榨中低端制造业工人的价值吃饭</font>。这种社会分层的事情，第一代中产中的聪明人心知肚明，他们<strong>不想让自己的孩子变成代价，所以会主动培养自己的孩子，脱离低端制造</strong>。</p>
<h2 id="工业化的厚黑社会学规则">工业化的厚黑社会学规则</h2>
<p>世界任何一个地域想保持工业化，且不断往工厂输送廉价劳动力，都只有5个办法</p>
<ol>
<li>让一部分潜在年轻人的父母处于贫困线左右，保持工人及其家庭的饥饿感</li>
<li>引进移民，贫困国家来的移民多受过苦难，对这些人来说，最重要的是吃饭，而不是工作本身</li>
<li>压低整体教育水平，对教育进行筛选分流，让部分年轻人无法接受高等教育，跳不出循环并且构建信息茧房，让打工人只能内部比价，双层夹击下无法脱离内部工业循环</li>
<li>降低社会福利期许，对产业工人和农民发极少的退休金，同时调高退休年龄，这群过过苦日子又有孩子的人什么都不会抱怨，有想法都会憋在心里，老了之后即便有一万个不情愿，也会选择进厂打工。社会福利化是工业化大杀器，有了最低保障人们会天然的拒绝逆人性事件</li>
<li>背上债务。杀死一个人最好的办法不是肉体而是灵魂，房贷加上孩子的软肋贷，就是逆人性的开始，也是进厂的开始。甚至说，负债不是目的，让大家好好工作才是精髓。把工作理由描述的再好，市面上绝大多数工作也都是基础工作，薪资待遇一般</li>
</ol>
<h2 id="美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱">美利坚去工业化的甜美陷阱</h2>
<p>美国在经历工业化高峰+美元霸权确立后，导致民众没有辛苦从事体力劳动的动力，而更倾向于从事金融，医生，律师等高收入服务行业。</p>
<p>美国工业创新能力的衰败，产业空心化的本质原因，是基于美国社会发展水平下的民众选择，这<font color="dodgerblue"><strong>是美元霸权的福利，也是美元霸权的代价</strong></font></p>
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