nb/fred-debt-pop.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Growth of Federal debt and its burden on the US population\n",
    "\n",
    "We examine government debt in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, \n",
    "and the current Federal debt per capita in the United States.\n",
    "\n",
    "As of 2017Q2:\n",
    "\n",
    "- Federal debt is \\$61,480 per American (including children and seniors).\n",
    "- Federal debt is \\$99,170 per worker (excluding the unemployed).\n",
    "- Average maturity of Treasury bonds is 5.73 years.\n",
    "- Interest rate on Federal debt is approximately 2.15%.\n",
    "\n",
    "Government debt per capita will more than double over 14 years \n",
    "in real terms, given current annualized geometric mean rate of +5.13%.\n",
    "\n",
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "Shortcut to this notebook: https://git.io/debtpop"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "*Dependencies:*\n",
    "\n",
    "- Repository: https://github.com/rsvp/fecon235\n",
    "     \n",
    "*CHANGE LOG*\n",
    "\n",
    "    2017-11-14  Appendix 1: Average Maturity of Treasury Bonds\n",
    "    2017-11-13  Update preamble to p6.15.1223d and the data, esp. for CSC 223.\n",
    "    2015-01-16  Code review.\n",
    "    2014-08-16  First version."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "from fecon235.fecon235 import *"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 2,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      " ::  Python 2.7.13\n",
      " ::  IPython 5.1.0\n",
      " ::  jupyter_core 4.2.1\n",
      " ::  notebook 4.1.0\n",
      " ::  matplotlib 1.5.1\n",
      " ::  numpy 1.11.0\n",
      " ::  scipy 0.17.0\n",
      " ::  sympy 1.0\n",
      " ::  pandas 0.19.2\n",
      " ::  pandas_datareader 0.2.1\n",
      " ::  Repository: fecon235 v5.17.0722 develop\n",
      " ::  Timestamp: 2017-11-14T15:42:52Z\n",
      " ::  $pwd: /media/yaya/virt15h/virt/dbx/Dropbox/ipy/fecon235/nb\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  PREAMBLE-p6.15.1223d :: Settings and system details\n",
    "from __future__ import absolute_import, print_function, division\n",
    "system.specs()\n",
    "pwd = system.getpwd()   # present working directory as variable.\n",
    "print(\" ::  $pwd:\", pwd)\n",
    "#  If a module is modified, automatically reload it:\n",
    "%load_ext autoreload\n",
    "%autoreload 2\n",
    "#       Use 0 to disable this feature.\n",
    "\n",
    "#  Notebook DISPLAY options:\n",
    "#      Represent pandas DataFrames as text; not HTML representation:\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "pd.set_option( 'display.notebook_repr_html', False )\n",
    "from IPython.display import HTML # useful for snippets\n",
    "#  e.g. HTML('<iframe src=http://en.mobile.wikipedia.org/?useformat=mobile width=700 height=350></iframe>')\n",
    "from IPython.display import Image \n",
    "#  e.g. Image(filename='holt-winters-equations.png', embed=True) # url= also works\n",
    "from IPython.display import YouTubeVideo\n",
    "#  e.g. YouTubeVideo('1j_HxD4iLn8', start='43', width=600, height=400)\n",
    "from IPython.core import page\n",
    "get_ipython().set_hook('show_in_pager', page.as_hook(page.display_page), 0)\n",
    "#  Or equivalently in config file: \"InteractiveShell.display_page = True\", \n",
    "#  which will display results in secondary notebook pager frame in a cell.\n",
    "\n",
    "#  Generate PLOTS inside notebook, \"inline\" generates static png:\n",
    "%matplotlib inline   \n",
    "#          \"notebook\" argument allows interactive zoom and resize."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Retrieving the data\n",
    "\n",
    "The source of the data is FRED which is a public server \n",
    "operated by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.\n",
    "\n",
    "Details on the individual series are covered in our Python module: \n",
    "[yi_fred.py](https://github.com/rsvp/fecon235/blob/master/lib/yi_fred.py) \n",
    "and it also explains useful transformations on raw data \n",
    "for financial economics. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Federal debt monthly (resampled from original quarterly series):\n",
    "debt = get( m4debt )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 4,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "                     Y\n",
       "T                     \n",
       "2016-10-01  19976827.0\n",
       "2016-11-01  19933358.0\n",
       "2016-12-01  19889889.0\n",
       "2017-01-01  19846420.0\n",
       "2017-02-01  19845798.0\n",
       "2017-03-01  19845176.0\n",
       "2017-04-01  19844554.0"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 4,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  See just the tail end of the debt time-series:\n",
    "tail( debt )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 5,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
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5KDTlIFBPXCTPXnwxjP3eaisYMwY6dIg7IpH8UU9cytaSJeFmxC+/DHfdFQ5i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\n/x8ud1tWm/J/dgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0xa9b6516c>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "plot( debt )\n",
    "#  This series is denominated in millions of dollars,\n",
    "#  so we are looking at Federal debt around \n",
    "#  1.8 * 10^7 * 10^6 = $18 trillion circa 2014Q3.\n",
    "#  tail() indicates $19.84 trillion circa 2017Q2."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 6,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Deflator is an aggregated monthly time-series,\n",
    "#  derived from core and headline versions of both CPI and PCE, \n",
    "#  normalized to 1 at the most current point:\n",
    "defl = get( m4defl )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 7,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "                   Y\n",
       "T                   \n",
       "2017-03-01  1.008585\n",
       "2017-04-01  1.006966\n",
       "2017-05-01  1.007095\n",
       "2017-06-01  1.006415\n",
       "2017-07-01  1.005338\n",
       "2017-08-01  1.002943\n",
       "2017-09-01  1.000000"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 7,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "tail( defl )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 8,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Real debt is defined by...\n",
    "rdebt = todf( defl * debt )\n",
    "#  ... in terms of _current_ dollars.\n",
    "\n",
    "#  Pandas will align the timestamps between the two series \n",
    "#  to correctly perform the multiplication."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 9,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0xa831436c>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Plot real debt:\n",
    "plot( rdebt )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 10,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Total population of the USA:\n",
    "pop = get( m4pop )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 11,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Real debt per capita:\n",
    "rdebtcap = todf( rdebt / pop )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 12,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "image/png": 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ZNgwuuyzFqFHw+utpJk9ORnwNl1OpVKLiiWM581hS4inn5XQ6zciRIwHW1MvG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\nbRGRMvL/GiAagIzngp8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=\n",
      "text/plain": [
       "<matplotlib.figure.Figure at 0xa825896c>"
      ]
     },
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "display_data"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Plot real debt per American...\n",
    "plot( rdebtcap )\n",
    "#  ... shown in thousands of dollars."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "***In current dollars***, each American (including children and seniors) \n",
    "incurred Federal debt of around \\$10,000 before the 1980s. \n",
    "Then there is a steady climb to around \\$35,000 in 2008. \n",
    "Thereafter, it is seen **rocketing** (more than doubling since 2002) \n",
    "to over $60,000. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Computing geometric mean rates\n",
    "\n",
    "Here we use a feature of the pandas DataFrame, \n",
    "called *index slicing*, to study different regimes."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "##  What does gemrat() compute?\n",
    "##  [geometric mean rate, arithmetic mean rate, volatility, \n",
    "##   kurtosis, yearly factor for annualization, sample size]\n",
    "\n",
    "#  gemrat??  # Uncomment to inspect the function."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 14,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[2.592800173927734,\n",
       " 2.6088053152349113,\n",
       " 1.8119127705741984,\n",
       " 3.4485312228497524,\n",
       " 12,\n",
       " 432]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 14,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "gemrat( rdebtcap[:'2002-01-01'], yearly=12 )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 15,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "[5.129853393980599,\n",
       " 5.1435435778879377,\n",
       " 1.6962579494616916,\n",
       " 4.7146215771006936,\n",
       " 12,\n",
       " 183]"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 15,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "gemrat( rdebtcap['2002-01-01':], yearly=12 )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Through 2002, the *geometric* growth rate of real debt per capita was +2.59%. \n",
    "Since 2002, that rate has increased to +5.13% per annum. \n",
    "\n",
    "(The underlying series is also becoming increasingly leptokurtotic \n",
    "since Pearson kurtosis should be 3 for a Gaussian.)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 16,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "2.014527971014615"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 16,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  To confirm doubling over 14 years at the geometric rate of 5.13% per annum:\n",
    "1.0513 ** 14"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "**Government debt per capita will more than double over 14 years \n",
    "in real terms, given current annualized geometric mean rate of +5.13%.**"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "### Federal debt is currently \\$61,480 per capita. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 17,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "                    Y\n",
       "T                    \n",
       "2016-10-01  62.598000\n",
       "2016-11-01  62.347526\n",
       "2016-12-01  62.054464\n",
       "2017-01-01  61.646121\n",
       "2017-02-01  61.523670\n",
       "2017-03-01  61.616266\n",
       "2017-04-01  61.484023"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 17,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Most recent:\n",
    "tail( rdebtcap )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 18,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "99.16777878148672"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 18,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Prorate to only WORKERS:\n",
    "tailvalue(rdebtcap) / 0.62"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "Assuming 62% of the population are workers, see \n",
    "[fred-gdp-wage.ipynb](https://git.io/gdpwage), \n",
    "**each worker carries approximately $99,170 of Federal debt**. \n",
    "That figure is equivalent to more than two years of average wage income. "
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "---\n",
    "\n",
    "### Appendix 1: Average Maturity of Treasury Bonds\n",
    "\n",
    "The US government debt is securitized by Treasury Bills and Bonds \n",
    "which are issued at various maturities.\n",
    "The weighted average maturity *statistically* summarizes \n",
    "the \"due date\" on which the principal must be repaid, \n",
    "and it can serve to estimate a single interest rate \n",
    "on the US debt (see Treasury yield curve).\n",
    "Of course, new Treasury obligations are periodically\n",
    "issued which rolls over the US government debt into the future."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 19,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": true
   },
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "#  Get weighted average maturity of \n",
    "#  \"Total Outstanding Treasury Marketable Securities\",\n",
    "#  monthly time-series from the US Treasury, \n",
    "#             via Quandl code:\n",
    "avmat = get( 'USTREASURY/AVMAT' )\n",
    "#  ... expressed in number of months."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 20,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "                    Y\n",
       "T                    \n",
       "2015-09-30  69.808297\n",
       "2015-10-31  70.000000\n",
       "2015-11-30  69.000000\n",
       "2015-12-31  69.000000\n",
       "2016-01-31  69.310000\n",
       "2016-02-29  69.000000\n",
       "2016-03-31  68.810000"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 20,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Most recently available:\n",
    "tail( avmat )"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {
    "collapsed": false
   },
   "outputs": [
    {
     "data": {
      "text/plain": [
       "5.734166666666667"
      ]
     },
     "execution_count": 21,
     "metadata": {},
     "output_type": "execute_result"
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "#  Just the LATEST avmat, expressed in YEARS:\n",
    "tailvalue(avmat) / 12."
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "[WSJ Treasury quotes](http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html?mod=mdc_bnd_pglnk)\n",
    "provides the following:\n",
    "\n",
    "```\n",
    "Maturity       Coupon     Yield\n",
    "1/31/2023      1.750      2.117\n",
    "2/15/2023      2.000      2.117\n",
    "2/15/2023      7.125      2.090\n",
    "2/28/2023      1.500      2.122\n",
    "3/31/2023      1.500      2.132\n",
    "4/30/2023      1.625      2.141\n",
    "5/15/2023      1.750      2.146\n",
    "5/31/2023      1.625      2.151\n",
    "6/30/2023      1.375      2.159\n",
    "7/31/2023      1.250      2.162\n",
    "8/15/2023      2.500      2.154\n",
    "8/15/2023      6.250      2.132\n",
    "8/31/2023      1.375      2.164\n",
    "9/30/2023      1.375      2.176\n",
    "10/31/2023     1.625      2.177\n",
    "11/15/2023     2.750      2.177\n",
    "11/30/2023     2.125      2.182\n",
    "12/31/2023     2.250      2.199\n",
    "```\n",
    "\n",
    "So we can estimate the **interest rate on the US debt\n",
    "to be approximately 2.15%.**\n",
    "\n",
    "The typical American worker thus implicitly \n",
    "owes \\$2,130 per year just in interest expenses \n",
    "(on principal amount of \\$99,170)\n",
    "to maintain the national debt."
   ]
  }
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