Air_Quality_in_Dar_es_Salaam.ipynb

{
 "cells": [
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "c35debd2",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "<font size=\"+3\"><strong>3.5. Air Quality in Dar es Salaam 🇹🇿</strong></font>"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 1,
   "id": "060810c9",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "ename": "Exception",
     "evalue": "Could not connect to Grading Service API: HTTPConnectionPool(host='localhost', port=2400): Max retries exceeded with url: /1/track (Caused by NewConnectionError('<urllib3.connection.HTTPConnection object at 0x282fcaad0>: Failed to establish a new connection: [Errno 61] Connection refused'))",
     "output_type": "error",
     "traceback": [
      "\u001b[0;31m---------------------------------------------------------------------------\u001b[0m",
      "\u001b[0;31mConnectionRefusedError\u001b[0m                    Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connection.py:174\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection._new_conn\u001b[0;34m(self)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    173\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 174\u001b[0m     conn \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mconnection\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mcreate_connection\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    175\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_dns_host\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mport\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mtimeout\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mextra_kw\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    176\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    178\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mexcept\u001b[39;00m SocketTimeout:\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/util/connection.py:95\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mcreate_connection\u001b[0;34m(address, timeout, source_address, socket_options)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     94\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m err \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m---> 95\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m err\n\u001b[1;32m     97\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m socket\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39merror(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mgetaddrinfo returns an empty list\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m)\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/util/connection.py:85\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mcreate_connection\u001b[0;34m(address, timeout, source_address, socket_options)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     84\u001b[0m     sock\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mbind(source_address)\n\u001b[0;32m---> 85\u001b[0m \u001b[43msock\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mconnect\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43msa\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m     86\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m sock\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mConnectionRefusedError\u001b[0m: [Errno 61] Connection refused",
      "\nDuring handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mNewConnectionError\u001b[0m                        Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connectionpool.py:703\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnectionPool.urlopen\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, body, headers, retries, redirect, assert_same_host, timeout, pool_timeout, release_conn, chunked, body_pos, **response_kw)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    702\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Make the request on the httplib connection object.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m--> 703\u001b[0m httplib_response \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_make_request\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    704\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mconn\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    705\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    706\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    707\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mtimeout\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mtimeout_obj\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    708\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    709\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    710\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mchunked\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mchunked\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    711\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    713\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# If we're going to release the connection in ``finally:``, then\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    714\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# the response doesn't need to know about the connection. Otherwise\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    715\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# it will also try to release it and we'll have a double-release\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    716\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# mess.\u001b[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connectionpool.py:398\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnectionPool._make_request\u001b[0;34m(self, conn, method, url, timeout, chunked, **httplib_request_kw)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    397\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 398\u001b[0m         \u001b[43mconn\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mhttplib_request_kw\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    400\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# We are swallowing BrokenPipeError (errno.EPIPE) since the server is\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    401\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# legitimately able to close the connection after sending a valid response.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    402\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# With this behaviour, the received response is still readable.\u001b[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connection.py:239\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection.request\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, body, headers)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    238\u001b[0m     headers[\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mUser-Agent\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m] \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m _get_default_user_agent()\n\u001b[0;32m--> 239\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43msuper\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mHTTPConnection\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/http/client.py:1282\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection.request\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, body, headers, encode_chunked)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1281\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;124;03m\"\"\"Send a complete request to the server.\"\"\"\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m-> 1282\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_send_request\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mencode_chunked\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/http/client.py:1328\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection._send_request\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, body, headers, encode_chunked)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1327\u001b[0m     body \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m _encode(body, \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mbody\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m)\n\u001b[0;32m-> 1328\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mendheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mencode_chunked\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mencode_chunked\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/http/client.py:1277\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection.endheaders\u001b[0;34m(self, message_body, encode_chunked)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1276\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m CannotSendHeader()\n\u001b[0;32m-> 1277\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_send_output\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmessage_body\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mencode_chunked\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mencode_chunked\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/http/client.py:1037\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection._send_output\u001b[0;34m(self, message_body, encode_chunked)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m   1036\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mdel\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39m_buffer[:]\n\u001b[0;32m-> 1037\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43msend\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmsg\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m   1039\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m message_body \u001b[38;5;129;01mis\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mNone\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[1;32m   1040\u001b[0m \n\u001b[1;32m   1041\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;66;03m# create a consistent interface to message_body\u001b[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m/Library/Frameworks/Python.framework/Versions/3.10/lib/python3.10/http/client.py:975\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection.send\u001b[0;34m(self, data)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    974\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mauto_open:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 975\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mconnect\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    976\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connection.py:205\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection.connect\u001b[0;34m(self)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    204\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mdef\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;21mconnect\u001b[39m(\u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m):\n\u001b[0;32m--> 205\u001b[0m     conn \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m_new_conn\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    206\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39m_prepare_conn(conn)\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connection.py:186\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnection._new_conn\u001b[0;34m(self)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    185\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mexcept\u001b[39;00m SocketError \u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m e:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 186\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m NewConnectionError(\n\u001b[1;32m    187\u001b[0m         \u001b[38;5;28mself\u001b[39m, \u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mFailed to establish a new connection: \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m%s\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;241m%\u001b[39m e\n\u001b[1;32m    188\u001b[0m     )\n\u001b[1;32m    190\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m conn\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mNewConnectionError\u001b[0m: <urllib3.connection.HTTPConnection object at 0x282fcaad0>: Failed to establish a new connection: [Errno 61] Connection refused",
      "\nDuring handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mMaxRetryError\u001b[0m                             Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/adapters.py:440\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPAdapter.send\u001b[0;34m(self, request, stream, timeout, verify, cert, proxies)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    439\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;129;01mnot\u001b[39;00m chunked:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 440\u001b[0m     resp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mconn\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43murlopen\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    441\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    442\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    443\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mbody\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    444\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    445\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mredirect\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mFalse\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    446\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43massert_same_host\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mFalse\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    447\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mpreload_content\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mFalse\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    448\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdecode_content\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43;01mFalse\u001b[39;49;00m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    449\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mretries\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmax_retries\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    450\u001b[0m \u001b[43m        \u001b[49m\u001b[43mtimeout\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mtimeout\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    451\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    453\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Send the request.\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m    454\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01melse\u001b[39;00m:\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/connectionpool.py:785\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPConnectionPool.urlopen\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, body, headers, retries, redirect, assert_same_host, timeout, pool_timeout, release_conn, chunked, body_pos, **response_kw)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    783\u001b[0m     e \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m ProtocolError(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mConnection aborted.\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, e)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 785\u001b[0m retries \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mretries\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mincrement\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    786\u001b[0m \u001b[43m    \u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43merror\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43me\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43m_pool\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43m_stacktrace\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43msys\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mexc_info\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\u001b[43m[\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m2\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m]\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    787\u001b[0m \u001b[43m\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    788\u001b[0m retries\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msleep()\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/urllib3/util/retry.py:592\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mRetry.increment\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, response, error, _pool, _stacktrace)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    591\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mif\u001b[39;00m new_retry\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mis_exhausted():\n\u001b[0;32m--> 592\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m MaxRetryError(_pool, url, error \u001b[38;5;129;01mor\u001b[39;00m ResponseError(cause))\n\u001b[1;32m    594\u001b[0m log\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mdebug(\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mIncremented Retry for (url=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m%s\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m): \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m%r\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, url, new_retry)\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mMaxRetryError\u001b[0m: HTTPConnectionPool(host='localhost', port=2400): Max retries exceeded with url: /1/track (Caused by NewConnectionError('<urllib3.connection.HTTPConnection object at 0x282fcaad0>: Failed to establish a new connection: [Errno 61] Connection refused'))",
      "\nDuring handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mConnectionError\u001b[0m                           Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/wqet_grader/transport.py:120\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mremote_request\u001b[0;34m(method, path, data)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    119\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mtry\u001b[39;00m:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 120\u001b[0m   r \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43mrequests\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mGRADING_API_URL\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m+\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mpath\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mheaders\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mjson\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mdata\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    121\u001b[0m   content \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m r\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mtext\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/api.py:61\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mrequest\u001b[0;34m(method, url, **kwargs)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m     60\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mwith\u001b[39;00m sessions\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mSession() \u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m session:\n\u001b[0;32m---> 61\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m \u001b[43msession\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mmethod\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m=\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43murl\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mkwargs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/sessions.py:529\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSession.request\u001b[0;34m(self, method, url, params, data, headers, cookies, files, auth, timeout, allow_redirects, proxies, hooks, stream, verify, cert, json)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    528\u001b[0m send_kwargs\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mupdate(settings)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 529\u001b[0m resp \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[38;5;28;43mself\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43msend\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mprep\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43msend_kwargs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    531\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mreturn\u001b[39;00m resp\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/sessions.py:645\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mSession.send\u001b[0;34m(self, request, **kwargs)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    644\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Send the request\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[0;32m--> 645\u001b[0m r \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m \u001b[43madapter\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43msend\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[43mrequest\u001b[49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m*\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43mkwargs\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n\u001b[1;32m    647\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;66;03m# Total elapsed time of the request (approximately)\u001b[39;00m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/requests/adapters.py:519\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mHTTPAdapter.send\u001b[0;34m(self, request, stream, timeout, verify, cert, proxies)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    517\u001b[0m         \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m SSLError(e, request\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mrequest)\n\u001b[0;32m--> 519\u001b[0m     \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mConnectionError\u001b[39;00m(e, request\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39mrequest)\n\u001b[1;32m    521\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mexcept\u001b[39;00m ClosedPoolError \u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m e:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mConnectionError\u001b[0m: HTTPConnectionPool(host='localhost', port=2400): Max retries exceeded with url: /1/track (Caused by NewConnectionError('<urllib3.connection.HTTPConnection object at 0x282fcaad0>: Failed to establish a new connection: [Errno 61] Connection refused'))",
      "\nDuring handling of the above exception, another exception occurred:\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mException\u001b[0m                                 Traceback (most recent call last)",
      "Input \u001b[0;32mIn [1]\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36m<cell line: 6>\u001b[0;34m()\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m      3\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mimport\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;21;01mwqet_grader\u001b[39;00m\n\u001b[1;32m      5\u001b[0m warnings\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39msimplefilter(action\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mignore\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m\"\u001b[39m, category\u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;167;01mFutureWarning\u001b[39;00m)\n\u001b[0;32m----> 6\u001b[0m \u001b[43mwqet_grader\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;241;43m.\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43minit\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mProject 3 Assessment\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m\"\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/wqet_grader/__init__.py:222\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36minit\u001b[0;34m(assessment_id)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    214\u001b[0m   init_html()\n\u001b[1;32m    215\u001b[0m data \u001b[38;5;241m=\u001b[39m {\n\u001b[1;32m    216\u001b[0m   \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124massessment\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: assessment_id,\n\u001b[1;32m    217\u001b[0m   \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mevent_type\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m: \u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mloaded\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m,\n\u001b[0;32m   (...)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    220\u001b[0m   },\n\u001b[1;32m    221\u001b[0m }\n\u001b[0;32m--> 222\u001b[0m \u001b[43mremote_request\u001b[49m\u001b[43m(\u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43mPOST\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m/1/track\u001b[39;49m\u001b[38;5;124;43m'\u001b[39;49m\u001b[43m,\u001b[49m\u001b[43m \u001b[49m\u001b[43mdata\u001b[49m\u001b[43m)\u001b[49m\n",
      "File \u001b[0;32m~/softwares/py3.10venv/lib/python3.10/site-packages/wqet_grader/transport.py:126\u001b[0m, in \u001b[0;36mremote_request\u001b[0;34m(method, path, data)\u001b[0m\n\u001b[1;32m    124\u001b[0m   \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mException\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mCould not connect to Grading Service API: \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mformat(\u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(e)))\n\u001b[1;32m    125\u001b[0m \u001b[38;5;28;01mexcept\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mException\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;28;01mas\u001b[39;00m e:\n\u001b[0;32m--> 126\u001b[0m   \u001b[38;5;28;01mraise\u001b[39;00m \u001b[38;5;167;01mException\u001b[39;00m(\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;124mCould not connect to Grading Service API: \u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;132;01m{}\u001b[39;00m\u001b[38;5;124m'\u001b[39m\u001b[38;5;241m.\u001b[39mformat(\u001b[38;5;28mstr\u001b[39m(e)))\n",
      "\u001b[0;31mException\u001b[0m: Could not connect to Grading Service API: HTTPConnectionPool(host='localhost', port=2400): Max retries exceeded with url: /1/track (Caused by NewConnectionError('<urllib3.connection.HTTPConnection object at 0x282fcaad0>: Failed to establish a new connection: [Errno 61] Connection refused'))"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "import warnings\n",
    "\n",
    "import wqet_grader\n",
    "\n",
    "warnings.simplefilter(action=\"ignore\", category=FutureWarning)\n",
    "wqet_grader.init(\"Project 3 Assessment\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "14b8b1bc",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import inspect\n",
    "import time\n",
    "import warnings\n",
    "from pprint import PrettyPrinter\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import plotly.express as px\n",
    "import seaborn as sns\n",
    "from IPython.display import VimeoVideo\n",
    "from pymongo import MongoClient\n",
    "from sklearn.metrics import mean_absolute_error\n",
    "from statsmodels.graphics.tsaplots import plot_acf, plot_pacf\n",
    "from statsmodels.tsa.arima.model import ARIMA\n",
    "import time\n",
    "warnings.filterwarnings(\"ignore\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "d7d0bd28",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pp = PrettyPrinter(indent=2)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "45e2a4fa",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "client = MongoClient(host='localhost', port=27017)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "d037775b",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "pp.pprint(list(client.list_databases()))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "a29196af",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "db = client[\"air-quality\"]"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "7d752520",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "for c in db.list_collections():\n",
    "    print(c['name'])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "a8a07203",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dar = db['dar-es-salaam']"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "05dbc6b2",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Explore"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "7c1dc1fd",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "dar.count_documents({})"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "82227e5b",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "result = dar.find_one({})\n",
    "pp.pprint(result)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "52b136c9",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "sites = dar.distinct('metadata.site')\n",
    "sites"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "22b8d4ac",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "wqet_grader.grade(\"Project 3 Assessment\", \"Task 3.5.2\", sites)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2303f137",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "print(\"Documents from site 23:\", dar.count_documents({'metadata.site': 23}))\n",
    "print(\"Documents from site 11:\", dar.count_documents({'metadata.site': 11}))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "98f1a4c5",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "result = dar.aggregate(\n",
    "    [\n",
    "        \n",
    "        {'$group': {'_id': '$metadata.site', 'count': {'$count': {}}}}\n",
    "    ]\n",
    ")\n",
    "pp.pprint(list(result))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "83469dac",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "readings_per_site = dar.aggregate(\n",
    "    [\n",
    "        {\"$match\": {\"metadata.measurement\": \"P2\"}},\n",
    "        {'$group': {'_id': '$metadata.site', 'count': {'$count': {}}}}\n",
    "    ]\n",
    ")\n",
    "pp.pprint(list(readings_per_site))"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "7db75467",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "def wrangle(collection, resample_rule=\"1H\"):\n",
    "\n",
    "    results = collection.find(\n",
    "        {\"metadata.site\": 29, \"metadata.measurement\": \"P2\"},\n",
    "        projection={\"P2\": 1, \"timestamp\": 1, \"_id\": 0},\n",
    "    )\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Read results into DataFrame\n",
    "    df = pd.DataFrame(list(results)).set_index(\"timestamp\")\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Localize timezone\n",
    "    df.index = df.index.tz_localize(\"UTC\").tz_convert(\"Africa/Dar_es_Salaam\")\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Remove outliers\n",
    "    df = df[df[\"P2\"] < 500]\n",
    "\n",
    "    # Resample and forward-fill\n",
    "    y = df[\"P2\"].resample(resample_rule).mean().fillna(method=\"ffill\")\n",
    "\n",
    "    return y"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "c4b390c8",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y = wrangle(dar)\n",
    "y.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "1a05d3d1",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Explore Some More"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "52881a3a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "y.plot(ax=ax, xlabel=\"Time\", ylabel=\"PM2.5\");\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-5.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "66400ffb",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "y.rolling(168).mean().plot(ax=ax, ylabel=\"PM2.5\", title=\"Weekly Rolling Averages\");\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-6.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "5cf46852",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "plot_acf(y, ax=ax);\n",
    "plt.xlabel(\"Lag [hours]\")\n",
    "plt.ylabel(\"Correlation Coefficient\")\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-7.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2752a40c",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "plot_pacf(y, ax=ax);\n",
    "plt.xlabel(\"Lag [hours]\")\n",
    "plt.ylabel(\"Correlation Coefficient\")\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-8.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "5b6ffd7a",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Split"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "1e945a01",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "cutoff_test = int(0.90*len(y))\n",
    "y_train = y.iloc[:cutoff_test]\n",
    "y_test = y.iloc[cutoff_test:]\n",
    "print(\"y_train shape:\", y_train.shape)\n",
    "print(\"y_test shape:\", y_test.shape)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "e9b14f6e",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Build Model"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "4302eda0",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Baseline"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "d04f4cbc",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_train_mean = y_train.mean()\n",
    "y_pred_baseline = [y_train_mean] * len(y_train)\n",
    "mae_baseline = mean_absolute_error(y_train, y_pred_baseline)\n",
    "\n",
    "print(\"Mean P2 Reading:\", y_train_mean)\n",
    "print(\"Baseline MAE:\", mae_baseline)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "be1908aa",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Iterate"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2e67e39c",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "p_params = range(1, 31)\n",
    "maes = []\n",
    "for p in p_params:\n",
    "    start_time = time.time()\n",
    "    model = AutoReg(y_train, lags=p).fit()\n",
    "    y_pred = model.predict().dropna()\n",
    "    training_mae = mean_absolute_error(y_train[p:], y_pred)\n",
    "    maes.append(training_mae)\n",
    "    elapsed_time = round(time.time() - start_time, 2)\n",
    "    print(f\"Trained AutoReg {p} in {elapsed_time} seconds.\")\n",
    "mae_series = pd.Series(maes, name=\"mae\", index=p_params)\n",
    "mae_series.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "cb191b05",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "plt.plot(mae_series)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "ea392e58",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "best_p = p_params[mae_series.argmin()]\n",
    "best_model = AutoReg(y_train, lags=best_p).fit()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2d27bef3",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_train_resid = model.resid\n",
    "y_train_resid.name = \"residuals\"\n",
    "y_train_resid.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "0bddfcfc",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "# Plot histogram of residuals\n",
    "\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "plt.hist(y_train_resid)\n",
    "plt.xlabel(\"Residuals\")\n",
    "plt.ylabel(\"Frequency\")\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-14.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "056b96e7",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(15, 6))\n",
    "\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "plot_acf(y_train_resid, ax=ax)\n",
    "plt.xlabel(\"Lag [hours]\")\n",
    "plt.ylabel(\"Correlation Coefficient\")\n",
    "plt.title(\"Dar es Salaam, Training Residuals ACF\")\n",
    "plt.savefig(\"images/3-5-15.png\", dpi=150)"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "aada21f3",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "## Evaluate"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "29015bf4",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_pred_wfv = pd.Series()\n",
    "history = y_train.copy()\n",
    "for i in range(len(y_test)):\n",
    "    AutoReg(history, lags=best_p).fit()\n",
    "    next_pred = model.forecast()\n",
    "    y_pred_wfv = y_pred_wfv.append(next_pred)\n",
    "    history = history.append(y_test[next_pred.index])\n",
    "y_pred_wfv.name = \"prediction\"\n",
    "y_pred_wfv.index.name = \"timestamp\"\n",
    "y_pred_wfv.head()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "markdown",
   "id": "724c91e3",
   "metadata": {},
   "source": [
    "# Communicate Results"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "0de794d4",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_test"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "ecb192e9",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "y_pred_wfv.values"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "e5e62957",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "df_pred_test = pd.DataFrame(\n",
    "    {\n",
    "        \"y_test\": y_test.values,\n",
    "        \"y_pred_wfv\": y_pred_wfv.values\n",
    "        \n",
    "    }\n",
    ")\n",
    "df_pred_test.head()\n",
    "fig = px.line(df_pred_test, labels={\"value\": \"PM2.5\"})\n",
    "fig.update_layout(\n",
    "    title=\"Dar es Salaam, WFV Predictions\",\n",
    "    xaxis_title=\"Date\",\n",
    "    yaxis_title=\"PM2.5 Level\",\n",
    ")\n",
    "# Don't delete the code below 👇\n",
    "fig.write_image(\"images/3-5-18.png\", scale=1, height=500, width=700)\n",
    "\n",
    "fig.show()"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "7d223dcf",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "2eebf66a",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": null,
   "id": "b80ed587",
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [],
   "source": []
  }
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