diff --git a/statistics/handle/update.go b/statistics/handle/update.go
index ab5fae00c3dd8..d66e5afab79f5 100644
--- a/statistics/handle/update.go
+++ b/statistics/handle/update.go
@@ -1402,10 +1402,10 @@ func (h *Handle) RecalculateExpectCount(q *statistics.QueryFeedback) error {
 	expected := 0.0
 	if isIndex {
 		idx := t.Indices[id]
-		expected, err = idx.GetRowCount(sctx, nil, ranges, t.Count)
+		expected, err = idx.GetRowCount(sctx, nil, ranges, t.Count, t.ModifyCount)
 	} else {
 		c := t.Columns[id]
-		expected, err = c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, ranges, t.Count, true)
+		expected, err = c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, ranges, t.Count, t.ModifyCount, true)
 	}
 	q.Expected = int64(expected)
 	return err
diff --git a/statistics/histogram.go b/statistics/histogram.go
index 59571fbfbcc63..79bd45b512f7c 100644
--- a/statistics/histogram.go
+++ b/statistics/histogram.go
@@ -876,7 +876,7 @@ func (hg *Histogram) outOfRange(val types.Datum) bool {
 
 // outOfRangeRowCount estimate the row count of part of [lDatum, rDatum] which is out of range of the histogram.
 // Here we assume the density of data is decreasing from the lower/upper bound of the histogram toward outside.
-// The maximum row count it can get is the increaseCount. It reaches the maximum when out-of-range width reaches histogram range width.
+// The maximum row count it can get is the modifyCount. It reaches the maximum when out-of-range width reaches histogram range width.
 // As it shows below. To calculate the out-of-range row count, we need to calculate the percentage of the shaded area.
 // Note that we assume histL-boundL == histR-histL == boundR-histR here.
 //
@@ -892,7 +892,7 @@ func (hg *Histogram) outOfRange(val types.Datum) bool {
 // boundL  │   │histL         histR       boundR
 //         │   │
 //    lDatum  rDatum
-func (hg *Histogram) outOfRangeRowCount(lDatum, rDatum *types.Datum, increaseCount int64) float64 {
+func (hg *Histogram) outOfRangeRowCount(lDatum, rDatum *types.Datum, modifyCount int64) float64 {
 	if hg.Len() == 0 {
 		return 0
 	}
@@ -976,8 +976,8 @@ func (hg *Histogram) outOfRangeRowCount(lDatum, rDatum *types.Datum, increaseCou
 		totalPercent = 1
 	}
 	rowCount := totalPercent * hg.notNullCount()
-	if rowCount > float64(increaseCount) {
-		return float64(increaseCount)
+	if rowCount > float64(modifyCount) {
+		return float64(modifyCount)
 	}
 	return rowCount
 }
@@ -1202,7 +1202,7 @@ func (c *Column) equalRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, val types.Datum, encoded
 }
 
 // GetColumnRowCount estimates the row count by a slice of Range.
-func (c *Column) GetColumnRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, ranges []*ranger.Range, realtimeRowCount int64, pkIsHandle bool) (float64, error) {
+func (c *Column) GetColumnRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, ranges []*ranger.Range, realtimeRowCount, modifyCount int64, pkIsHandle bool) (float64, error) {
 	sc := sctx.GetSessionVars().StmtCtx
 	var rowCount float64
 	for _, rg := range ranges {
@@ -1299,11 +1299,7 @@ func (c *Column) GetColumnRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, ranges []*ranger.Ran
 
 		// handling the out-of-range part
 		if (c.outOfRange(lowVal) && !lowVal.IsNull()) || c.outOfRange(highVal) {
-			increaseCount := realtimeRowCount - int64(c.TotalRowCount())
-			if increaseCount < 0 {
-				increaseCount = 0
-			}
-			cnt += c.Histogram.outOfRangeRowCount(&lowVal, &highVal, increaseCount)
+			cnt += c.Histogram.outOfRangeRowCount(&lowVal, &highVal, modifyCount)
 		}
 
 		rowCount += cnt
@@ -1426,7 +1422,7 @@ func (idx *Index) QueryBytes(d []byte) uint64 {
 
 // GetRowCount returns the row count of the given ranges.
 // It uses the modifyCount to adjust the influence of modifications on the table.
-func (idx *Index) GetRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, coll *HistColl, indexRanges []*ranger.Range, realtimeRowCount int64) (float64, error) {
+func (idx *Index) GetRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, coll *HistColl, indexRanges []*ranger.Range, realtimeRowCount, modifyCount int64) (float64, error) {
 	sc := sctx.GetSessionVars().StmtCtx
 	totalCount := float64(0)
 	isSingleCol := len(idx.Info.Columns) == 1
@@ -1518,11 +1514,7 @@ func (idx *Index) GetRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, coll *HistColl, indexRang
 
 		// handling the out-of-range part
 		if (idx.outOfRange(l) && !(isSingleCol && lowIsNull)) || idx.outOfRange(r) {
-			increaseCount := realtimeRowCount - int64(idx.TotalRowCount())
-			if increaseCount < 0 {
-				increaseCount = 0
-			}
-			totalCount += idx.Histogram.outOfRangeRowCount(&l, &r, increaseCount)
+			totalCount += idx.Histogram.outOfRangeRowCount(&l, &r, modifyCount)
 		}
 	}
 	totalCount = mathutil.Clamp(totalCount, 0, float64(realtimeRowCount))
diff --git a/statistics/selectivity_test.go b/statistics/selectivity_test.go
index 71f6c5f26808d..d5f1ffe913a64 100644
--- a/statistics/selectivity_test.go
+++ b/statistics/selectivity_test.go
@@ -128,7 +128,7 @@ func TestOutOfRangeEstimation(t *testing.T) {
 	statsTbl := h.GetTableStats(table.Meta())
 	sctx := mock.NewContext()
 	col := statsTbl.Columns[table.Meta().Columns[0].ID]
-	count, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(900, 900), statsTbl.Count, false)
+	count, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(900, 900), statsTbl.Count, statsTbl.ModifyCount, false)
 	require.NoError(t, err)
 	// Because the ANALYZE collect data by random sampling, so the result is not an accurate value.
 	// so we use a range here.
@@ -147,8 +147,9 @@ func TestOutOfRangeEstimation(t *testing.T) {
 	statsSuiteData := statistics.GetStatsSuiteData()
 	statsSuiteData.GetTestCases(t, &input, &output)
 	increasedTblRowCount := int64(float64(statsTbl.Count) * 1.5)
+	modifyCount := int64(float64(statsTbl.Count) * 0.5)
 	for i, ran := range input {
-		count, err = col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(ran.Start, ran.End), increasedTblRowCount, false)
+		count, err = col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(ran.Start, ran.End), increasedTblRowCount, modifyCount, false)
 		require.NoError(t, err)
 		testdata.OnRecord(func() {
 			output[i].Start = ran.Start
@@ -551,6 +552,7 @@ func TestSelectivity(t *testing.T) {
 		require.Truef(t, math.Abs(ratio-tt.selectivity) < eps, "for %s, needed: %v, got: %v", tt.exprs, tt.selectivity, ratio)
 
 		histColl.Count *= 10
+		histColl.ModifyCount = histColl.Count * 9
 		ratio, _, err = histColl.Selectivity(sctx, sel.Conditions, nil)
 		require.NoErrorf(t, err, "for %s", tt.exprs)
 		require.Truef(t, math.Abs(ratio-tt.selectivityAfterIncrease) < eps, "for %s, needed: %v, got: %v", tt.exprs, tt.selectivityAfterIncrease, ratio)
@@ -762,7 +764,7 @@ func TestSmallRangeEstimation(t *testing.T) {
 	statsSuiteData := statistics.GetStatsSuiteData()
 	statsSuiteData.GetTestCases(t, &input, &output)
 	for i, ran := range input {
-		count, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(ran.Start, ran.End), statsTbl.Count, false)
+		count, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, getRange(ran.Start, ran.End), statsTbl.Count, statsTbl.ModifyCount, false)
 		require.NoError(t, err)
 		testdata.OnRecord(func() {
 			output[i].Start = ran.Start
diff --git a/statistics/table.go b/statistics/table.go
index 134ea0ced5c7f..90351b3d0c78e 100644
--- a/statistics/table.go
+++ b/statistics/table.go
@@ -466,7 +466,7 @@ func (coll *HistColl) GetRowCountByIntColumnRanges(sctx sessionctx.Context, colI
 		}
 		return result, nil
 	}
-	result, err := c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, intRanges, coll.Count, true)
+	result, err := c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, intRanges, coll.Count, coll.ModifyCount, true)
 	if sc.EnableOptimizerCETrace {
 		CETraceRange(sctx, coll.PhysicalID, []string{c.Info.Name.O}, intRanges, "Column Stats", uint64(result))
 	}
@@ -484,7 +484,7 @@ func (coll *HistColl) GetRowCountByColumnRanges(sctx sessionctx.Context, colID i
 		}
 		return result, err
 	}
-	result, err := c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, colRanges, coll.Count, false)
+	result, err := c.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, colRanges, coll.Count, coll.ModifyCount, false)
 	if sc.EnableOptimizerCETrace {
 		CETraceRange(sctx, coll.PhysicalID, []string{c.Info.Name.O}, colRanges, "Column Stats", uint64(result))
 	}
@@ -517,7 +517,7 @@ func (coll *HistColl) GetRowCountByIndexRanges(sctx sessionctx.Context, idxID in
 	if idx.CMSketch != nil && idx.StatsVer == Version1 {
 		result, err = coll.getIndexRowCount(sctx, idxID, indexRanges)
 	} else {
-		result, err = idx.GetRowCount(sctx, coll, indexRanges, coll.Count)
+		result, err = idx.GetRowCount(sctx, coll, indexRanges, coll.Count, coll.ModifyCount)
 	}
 	if sc.EnableOptimizerCETrace {
 		CETraceRange(sctx, coll.PhysicalID, colNames, indexRanges, "Index Stats", uint64(result))
@@ -708,7 +708,7 @@ func (coll *HistColl) crossValidationSelectivity(sctx sessionctx.Context, idx *I
 				Collators:   []collate.Collator{idxPointRange.Collators[i]},
 			}
 
-			rowCount, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, []*ranger.Range{&rang}, coll.Count, col.IsHandle)
+			rowCount, err := col.GetColumnRowCount(sctx, []*ranger.Range{&rang}, coll.Count, coll.ModifyCount, col.IsHandle)
 			if err != nil {
 				return 0, 0, err
 			}
@@ -780,7 +780,7 @@ func (coll *HistColl) getIndexRowCount(sctx sessionctx.Context, idxID int64, ind
 		// on single-column index, use previous way as well, because CMSketch does not contain null
 		// values in this case.
 		if rangePosition == 0 || isSingleColIdxNullRange(idx, ran) {
-			count, err := idx.GetRowCount(sctx, nil, []*ranger.Range{ran}, coll.Count)
+			count, err := idx.GetRowCount(sctx, nil, []*ranger.Range{ran}, coll.Count, coll.ModifyCount)
 			if err != nil {
 				return 0, errors.Trace(err)
 			}