⭐ By-Election Early Warning System

View the dashboard here: https://campaignlab.github.io/By-Election-Early-Warning-System/

Project Status Update

We have made some progress on the initial implementation. So far, we have:

• Created a web interface that pulls data from opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections.php
• Implemented an interactive map showing all upcoming by-elections with color-coding based on timeline
• Added integration with NewsData.io API for local news searching

The current implementation can be found in the index.html file which includes both the interface and the core functionality.

Next steps:

• Integrate a better news API (something with better local news coverage)
• Add councillor monitoring (attendance, personal websites, social media) to view per by-election
• Add a historical trend of council seats

Original Project Plan

Background

By-elections present crucial opportunities for targeted campaigning and community engagement. Having advanced knowledge and data about upcoming by-elections allows for better resource allocation and strategic planning. Can we make a system that draws from this site and highlights areas which are vulnerable to reform? https://opencouncildata.co.uk/byelections.php

Challenge

Create an automated monitoring system that tracks and alerts on upcoming by-elections across the UK. The system should collect and organize data about dates, locations, and relevant demographic information.

Project Details

• Project Lead: Not specified
• Team Members:
  • Simon Wisdom
  • Lewis Colwill
  • Mel Tranfield
• Link to chat: https://chat.whatsapp.com/Lia9aoFUhKR6x2SJEaVYgO
• Link to GitHub: https://github.com/CampaignLab/By-Election-Early-Warning-System
• Skills Needed: Python, Web Scraping, Database Management

Questions

• Is the idea to monitor that single data source, or also scrape from other sources?

Strategy

• Collect demographic data and past election history for upcoming councils
• Identify councils that have a strong presence vs those that have a mix (stronghold vs marginal)
• Filter out strongholds (in theory they are not easily influenced, not worth time)
• Output a list of upcoming by-elections that are in marginal councils

Key Questions

• How do we define 'marginal' vs 'stronghold'?
• What kind of demographic data do we care about?

Useful Insights from HNH

• https://hopenothate.org.uk/reform-party-2024/
• https://hopenothate.org.uk/fear-and-hope-2024/
• What kind of 'warning signs' do we need to pay attention to?

Notes: Boundary Areas of Interest

England's Administrative Structure

In England, there are 2 broad ways of dividing up the country. There used to be a 2 tier system, in that every location was part of a district AND a county (county being larger). However, over time this has dissolved and now some places are only part of either a county or a district.

County Council

• County Electoral Divisions

District Council

• Ward

Unitary Authority (city)

• Some have an 'all out election' - all wards are elected at the same time. Each ward has 2-3 councillors
• Others do it by thirds - i.e., each year for the next 3 years, one of the three councillors are elected
• If boundaries get changed, sometimes councillors have to re-run much sooner than they had planned. Often they stand down in that case. This could be a warning sign

In most city regions (London, Manchester, Liverpool, etc), Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales, there is just 1 tier! This is called a council.

Another division is a "parish" - sometimes you have parishes in wards, and wards in parishes.

Areas of Concern

• North East
  • Sunderland
• East of England
• Wales

Warning Signs

• Big local issue that's attracting lots of attention
  • Eg. In Southampton 2 party members defected and swapped parties over a local issue
  • Local protest movements bubble up around immigration as a result of an unannounced asylum seeker shelter is set up
  • Stabbing/murder in a local area - Far right will jump on it, so that becomes a red alert
• Attendance of a councillor - below a threshold they cannot vote
• Marginality
• Councillors likely to resign - eg another by-election sooner than later (eg because a boundary redrawing)
• Look for local far right protests - they will often target areas they think might be influenced
  • Patriotic Alternative, Britain First, Homeland

Resources

• Protest hotspots 2023: Copy of Demo and Visit data 2023.xlsx (shared from Hope Not Hate)
• Local Election Archive Project (andrewteale.me.uk/leap/)

Planned Features

• Local news scraper
• Councillor monitoring (attendance, personal websites, social media)
• Historical trend of council seats
• First from https://opencouncildata.co.uk
• Zoom in by looking at actual council websites
• Look at protest hotspots - see if any map to upcoming by-election areas
• Map all of the above to upcoming by-elections

Sprint 1 Assignments

• Lewis will work on:

  • Historical trend of council seats
  • First from https://opencouncildata.co.uk
  • Zoom in by looking at actual council websites

• Simon will work on:

  • Local news scraper

• Mel will work on:

  • Councillor monitoring (attendance, personal websites, social media)