track when agents update risk level; implement convergence check based on stable risk attitudes

simulatingrisk/hawkdove/server.py

@@ -28,6 +28,9 @@ def agent_portrayal(agent):
         "size": 25,
         # "color": "tab:gray",
     }
+    # specific to multiple risk attitude variant
+    if hasattr(agent, "risk_level_changed"):
+        portrayal["risk_level_changed"] = agent.risk_level_changed
 
     # color based on risk level; risk levels are always 0-9
     colors = divergent_colors_10
@@ -154,18 +157,32 @@ def draw_hawkdove_agent_space(model, agent_portrayal):
             .scale(domain=hawkdove_domain, range=["orange", "blue"])
         )
 
-    chart = (
+    # optionally display information from multi-risk attitude variant
+    if "risk_level_changed" in df.columns:
+        outer_color = alt.Color(
+            "risk_level_changed", title="adjusted risk level"
+        ).scale(
+            domain=[False, True],
+            range=["transparent", "black"],
+        )
+    else:
+        outer_color = chart_color
+
+    agent_chart = (
         alt.Chart(df)
-        .mark_point(filled=True)
+        .mark_point()  # filled=True)
         .encode(
             x=alt.X("x", axis=None),  # no x-axis label
             y=alt.Y("y", axis=None),  # no y-axis label
             size=alt.Size("size", title="points rank"),  # relabel size for legend
-            color=chart_color,
+            # when fill and color differ, color acts as an outline
+            fill=chart_color,
+            color=outer_color,
             shape=alt.Shape(  # use shape to indicate choice
                 "choice", scale=alt.Scale(domain=hawkdove_domain, range=shape_range)
             ),
         )
         .configure_view(strokeOpacity=0)  # hide grid/chart lines
     )
-    return solara.FigureAltair(chart)
+
+    return solara.FigureAltair(agent_chart)

simulatingrisk/hawkdovemulti/README.md

@@ -20,6 +20,20 @@ Like the base hawk/dove risk attitude game, there is also a
 configuration to add some chance of agents playing hawk/dove randomly
 instead of choosing based on the rules of the game.
 
+## Convergence
+
+The model is configured to stop automatically when it has stabilized.
+Convergence is reached when an adjustment round occurs and zero agents
+adjust their risk attitude.
+
+If adjustment is not enabled, convergence logic falls back to the
+implementation of the hawk/dove single-risk attitude simulation, which is
+based on a stable rolling % average of agents playing hawk.
+
+Model and agent data collection also includes reports on whether agents
+updated their risk level in the last adjustment round, and model data collection
+includes a status of "running" or "converged".
+
 ## Batch running
 
 This module includes a custom batch run script to run the simulation and

simulatingrisk/hawkdovemulti/analysis_utils.py

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+"""
+utility methods for analyzing data collected generated by this model
+"""
+import altair as alt
+import polars as pl
+
+from simulatingrisk.hawkdovemulti.model import RiskState
+
+
+def groupby_population_risk_category(df):
+    """takes a polars dataframe populated with model data generated
+    by hawk/dove multi model, groups by population risk category and
+    adds group labels."""
+    # currently written for polars dataframe
+
+    # group on risk category to get totals for the  number of runs that
+    # ended up in each different type
+    poprisk_grouped = df.group_by("population_risk_category").count()
+    poprisk_grouped = poprisk_grouped.rename(
+        {"population_risk_category": "risk_category"}
+    )
+    poprisk_grouped = poprisk_grouped.sort("risk_category")
+
+    # add column with readable group labels for the numeric categories
+    poprisk_grouped = poprisk_grouped.with_columns(
+        pl.Series(
+            name="type",
+            values=poprisk_grouped["risk_category"].map_elements(RiskState.category),
+        )
+    )
+    return poprisk_grouped
+
+
+def graph_population_risk_category(poprisk_grouped):
+    """given a dataframe grouped by :meth:`groupby_population_risk_category`,
+    generate an altair chart graphing the number of runs in each type,
+    grouped and labeled by the larger categories."""
+    return (
+        alt.Chart(poprisk_grouped)
+        .mark_bar(width=15)
+        .encode(
+            x=alt.X(
+                "risk_category",
+                title="risk category",
+                axis=alt.Axis(tickCount=13),  # 13 categories
+                scale=alt.Scale(domain=[1, 13]),
+            ),
+            y=alt.Y("count", title="Number of runs"),
+            color=alt.Color("type", title="type"),
+        )
+        .properties(title="Distribution of runs by final population risk category")
+    )

simulatingrisk/hawkdovemulti/app.py

@@ -12,7 +12,6 @@
     neighborhood_sizes,
 )
 from simulatingrisk.hawkdove.model import divergent_colors_10
-from simulatingrisk.hawkdove.app import plot_hawks
 
 # start with common hawk/dove params, then add params for variable risk
 jupyterviz_params_var = common_jupyterviz_params.copy()
@@ -93,12 +92,42 @@ def plot_agents_by_risk(model):
             # distracting from the main point of this chart, which is quantitative
             # color=alt.Color("risk_level:N").scale(**color_scale_opts),
         )
+        .properties(title="Number of agents in each risk level")
     )
     return solara.FigureAltair(bar_chart)
 
 
+def plot_agents_risklevel_changed(model):
+    """plot the number of agents who updated their risk attitude on
+    the last adjustment round"""
+    model_df = model.datacollector.get_model_vars_dataframe().reset_index()
+    if model_df.empty:
+        return
+    # model_df = model_df[model_df.index % model.adjust_round_n == 0]
+    model_df = model_df[:: model.adjust_round_n]
+    if model_df.empty:
+        return
+
+    line_chart = (
+        alt.Chart(model_df)
+        .mark_line()
+        .encode(
+            y=alt.Y(
+                "num_agents_risk_changed",
+                title="# agents who updated risk level",
+                # axis=alt.Axis(tickCount=model.max_risk_level + 1),
+                scale=alt.Scale(domain=[0, model.num_agents]),
+            ),
+            x=alt.X("index"),
+        )
+        .properties(title="Number of agents with adjusted risk level")
+    )
+
+    return solara.FigureAltair(line_chart)
+
+
 def plot_hawks_by_risk(model):
-    """plot rolling mean of percent of agents in each risk attitude
+    """plot rolling mean of percent of agents in each risk level
     who chose hawk over last several rounds"""
 
     # in the first round, mesa returns a dataframe full of NAs; ignore that
@@ -146,14 +175,46 @@ def plot_hawks_by_risk(model):
             ),
             color=alt.Color("risk_level:N").scale(**color_scale_opts),
         )
+        .properties(title="Rolling average percent hawk by risk level")
     )
     return solara.FigureAltair(chart)
 
 
+def plot_wealth_by_risklevel(model):
+    """plot wealth distribution for each risk level"""
+    agent_df = model.datacollector.get_agent_vars_dataframe().reset_index().dropna()
+    if agent_df.empty:
+        return
+
+    last_step = agent_df.Step.max()
+    # plot current status / last round
+    last_round = agent_df[agent_df.Step == last_step]
+
+    wealth_chart = (
+        alt.Chart(last_round)
+        .mark_boxplot(extent="min-max")
+        .encode(
+            alt.X(
+                "risk_level",
+                scale=alt.Scale(domain=[model.min_risk_level, model.max_risk_level]),
+            ),
+            alt.Y("points").scale(zero=False),
+        )
+        .properties(title="Cumulative wealth by risk level")
+    )
+    return solara.FigureAltair(wealth_chart)
+
+
 page = JupyterViz(
     HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel,
     jupyterviz_params_var,
-    measures=[plot_hawks, plot_agents_by_risk, plot_hawks_by_risk],
+    measures=[
+        plot_agents_by_risk,
+        plot_hawks_by_risk,
+        plot_wealth_by_risklevel,
+        plot_agents_risklevel_changed,
+        # plot_hawks,
+    ],
     name="Hawk/Dove game with multiple risk attitudes",
     agent_portrayal=agent_portrayal,
     space_drawer=draw_hawkdove_agent_space,

simulatingrisk/hawkdovemulti/batch_run.py

@@ -15,18 +15,46 @@
 
 neighborhood_sizes = list(HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.neighborhood_sizes)
 
+# NOTE: it's better to be explicit about even parameters
+# instead of relying on model defaults, because
+# parameters specified here are included in data exports
+
+
 # combination of parameters we want to run
 params = {
-    "grid_size": [10, 25, 50],  # 100],
-    "risk_adjustment": ["adopt", "average"],
-    "play_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
-    "observed_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
-    "adjust_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
-    "hawk_odds": [0.5, 0.25, 0.75],
-    "adjust_every": [2, 10, 20],
-    "risk_distribution": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.risk_distribution_options,
-    "adjust_payoff": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.supported_adjust_payoffs,
-    # random?
+    "default": {
+        "grid_size": [10, 25, 50],  # 100],
+        "risk_adjustment": ["adopt", "average"],
+        "play_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
+        "observed_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
+        "adjust_neighborhood": neighborhood_sizes,
+        "hawk_odds": [0.5, 0.25, 0.75],
+        "adjust_every": [2, 10, 20],
+        "risk_distribution": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.risk_distribution_options,
+        "adjust_payoff": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.supported_adjust_payoffs,
+        # random?
+    },
+    # specific scenarios to allow paired statistical tests
+    "risk_adjust": {
+        # ary risk adjustment
+        "risk_adjustment": ["adopt", "average"],
+        "risk_distribution": "uniform",
+        # use model defaults; grid size must be specified
+        "grid_size": 10,  # 25,
+    },
+    "payoff": {
+        "adjust_payoff": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.supported_adjust_payoffs,
+        "risk_distribution": "uniform",
+        # use model defaults; grid size must be specified
+        "grid_size": 25,
+    },
+    "distribution": {
+        "risk_distribution": HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel.risk_distribution_options,
+        # adopt tends to converge faster; LB also says it's more interesting & simpler
+        "risk_adjustment": "adopt",
+        # use model defaults; grid size must be specified
+        "grid_size": 10,
+    },
 }
 
 
@@ -37,7 +65,14 @@ def run_hawkdovemulti_model(args):
 
     model = HawkDoveMultipleRiskModel(**params)
     while model.running and model.schedule.steps <= max_steps:
-        model.step()
+        try:
+            model.step()
+        # by default, signals propagate to all processes
+        # take advantage of that to exit and save results
+        except KeyboardInterrupt:
+            # if we get a ctrl-c / keyboard interrupt, stop looping
+            # and finish data collection to report on whatever was completed
+            break
 
     # collect data for the last step
     # (scheduler is 1-based index but data collection is 0-based)
@@ -72,8 +107,11 @@ def batch_run(
     collect_agent_data,
     file_prefix,
     max_runs,
+    param_choice,
 ):
-    param_combinations = _make_model_kwargs(params)
+    run_params = params.get(param_choice)
+
+    param_combinations = _make_model_kwargs(run_params)
     total_param_combinations = len(param_combinations)
     total_runs = total_param_combinations * iterations
     print(
@@ -169,7 +207,7 @@ def main():
         "--max-steps",
         help="Maximum steps to run simulations if they have not already "
         + "converged (default: %(default)s)",
-        default=125,  # typically converges quickly, around step 60 without randomness
+        default=1000,  # new convergence logic seems to converge around 400
         type=int,
     )
     parser.add_argument(
@@ -203,7 +241,12 @@ def main():
         type=int,
         default=None,
     )
-    # may want to add an option to configure output dir
+    parser.add_argument(
+        "--params",
+        help="Run a specific set of parameters",
+        choices=params.keys(),
+        default="default",
+    )
 
     args = parser.parse_args()
     batch_run(
@@ -215,6 +258,7 @@ def main():
         args.agent_data,
         args.file_prefix,
         args.max_runs,
+        args.params,
     )