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Spatial epidemiological model of DFTD

Here we present a spatially-explicit stochastic metapopulation model to simulate the spread and long-term behaviour of Devil Facial Tumour Disease (DFTD). The model represents the whole island of Tasmania and is implemented using Matlab.

We use detailed maps of pre-disease host density to inform the dynamics of local populations, and use data from the literature to inform a number of demographic parameters. The local dynamics of each population takes into account host age structure, since juveniles and subadults are known to suffer very low infection rates (due their limited participation in fights). The local demography was governed by logistic growth and the disease-spread by a compartmental model where infection leads to certain death through an exposed, a diagnosable (but not yet infectious) and finally an infectious state. These local populations were coupled by migration (permanent change in the home-range) and contact (infection between neighbouring patches, representing overlapping home-ranges), both of which are essential for the combined population dynamics of the host and the disease.

More details about the metapopulation model

More details about the field data used for fitting the model