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Enhance representation of state/utility incentives #410

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jtlangevin opened this issue Aug 26, 2024 · 1 comment
Open

Enhance representation of state/utility incentives #410

jtlangevin opened this issue Aug 26, 2024 · 1 comment

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@jtlangevin
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jtlangevin commented Aug 26, 2024

State/utility first cost incentives are represented at AEO ref. case levels, based on EIA modeling data that are updated with each AEO and reflect current programs. However, we need the ability to explore more aggressive scenarios of these incentives that go beyond the Reference Case forecast.

Proposed approach:

  • Create a database that lists assumptions about new incentives (e.g., % of total installed cost for given performance threshold; start and end year); extensions of existing incentives (through end year) and/or increases (or, for fossil equipment, removals) of existing incentives (% max ref. case incentive for start/end year) by state, building type, building vintage (new/existing), and technology, with applicability factors to map incentives that affect a portion of the state’s area.
    • Database could include rows for representing federal incentives (e.g., state = “all”) or in broad groupings of states (e.g., state = ”leading”; state= “usca”).
  • Apply the assumptions from (a) to code that applies first cost incentives (here):
    • For new incentives, assume new incentive is added on top of any existing incentives.
    • For extension, find the first year in the reference case forecast that reaches the maximum incentive level and extend it forward through the end year in (a).
    • For an increase, same as ii. but then increase by % specified in (a) for subsequent years.
@jtlangevin jtlangevin self-assigned this Aug 26, 2024
jtlangevin added a commit that referenced this issue Jan 28, 2025
Create and process new data (./scout/supporting_data/sub_fed/incentives.csv) to allow users to remove, extend, or replace AEO incentive levels for specific msegs in the Scout forecast.

A new function, import_state_data, was written in ecm_prep to read in and finalize the inputs for incentives modifications and (in the future) modifications to rates in one place.

Additionally, “federal” and “non-federal” branches on the existing residential incentives levels were added that split out the previously summed incentives across these dimensions, to allow more flexibility in making modifications to federal vs. sub-federal residential incentive levels for the residential sector (commercial incentives are not split out in this way in the AEO data.)

Users may modify incentive levels for a given applicable baseline segment or segment that a measure is switching to in three ways:

* Remove: exclude the AEO incentive from consideration beginning in a given start year (or for all years).
* Replace: if there is no removal (first bullet), specify a custom federal or state-level incentive that replaces any AEO incentive level previously specified for the given segment.
* Extend: if there is no removal or replacement (first and second bullets), find the largest level of the AEO incentive in years prior to a given start year and extend it through a given end year, possibly with a multiplier added on top of the existing AEO incentive.

For replacements of existing incentives for fuel switching, a user input determines whether the incentive allows the original fuel equipment to be retained as backup. For replacements, users must also specify information about how to qualify for the incentive – a performance threshold and units and the incentive level itself, which is either a % credit on installed cost or rebate $ decremented from installed cost.

Users may specify modifications to federal and sub-federal incentives separately, or can specify a modification that applies to both.

For sub-state-level incentives modifications, users may specify an applicable fraction that downscales the modification’s impact to only the portion of a state’s energy use that is affected by a sub-state policy.

An additional reference case measure flag, “ref_case_flag” was needed to ensure that incentives process correctly for add-on reference case measures (all add-on measures were previously excluded to prevent attempts to process incentives for, e.g., controls measures with relative % savings units, however ref. case measures are often defined as add-ons with zero performance or cost additions to the baseline and incentives should be assigned to these measures). The measure set was regenerated with this flag reflected.

Addresses issue #410.
jtlangevin added a commit that referenced this issue Jan 29, 2025
Create and process new data (./scout/supporting_data/sub_fed/incentives.csv) to allow users to remove, extend, or replace AEO incentive levels for specific msegs in the Scout forecast.

A new function, import_state_data, was written in ecm_prep to read in and finalize the inputs for incentives modifications and (in the future) modifications to rates in one place.

Additionally, “federal” and “non-federal” branches on the existing residential incentives levels were added that split out the previously summed incentives across these dimensions, to allow more flexibility in making modifications to federal vs. sub-federal residential incentive levels for the residential sector (commercial incentives are not split out in this way in the AEO data.)

Users may modify incentive levels for a given applicable baseline segment or segment that a measure is switching to in three ways:

* Remove: exclude the AEO incentive from consideration beginning in a given start year (or for all years).
* Replace: if there is no removal (first bullet), specify a custom federal or state-level incentive that replaces any AEO incentive level previously specified for the given segment.
* Extend: if there is no removal or replacement (first and second bullets), find the largest level of the AEO incentive in years prior to a given start year and extend it through a given end year, possibly with a multiplier added on top of the existing AEO incentive.

For replacements of existing incentives for fuel switching, a user input determines whether the incentive allows the original fuel equipment to be retained as backup. For replacements, users must also specify information about how to qualify for the incentive – a performance threshold and units and the incentive level itself, which is either a % credit on installed cost or rebate $ decremented from installed cost.

Users may specify modifications to federal and sub-federal incentives separately, or can specify a modification that applies to both.

For sub-state-level incentives modifications, users may specify an applicable fraction that downscales the modification’s impact to only the portion of a state’s energy use that is affected by a sub-state policy.

An additional reference case measure flag, “ref_case_flag” was needed to ensure that incentives process correctly for add-on reference case measures (all add-on measures were previously excluded to prevent attempts to process incentives for, e.g., controls measures with relative % savings units, however ref. case measures are often defined as add-ons with zero performance or cost additions to the baseline and incentives should be assigned to these measures). The measure set was regenerated with this flag reflected.

Addresses issue #410.
jtlangevin added a commit that referenced this issue Jan 29, 2025
Create and process new data (./scout/supporting_data/sub_fed/incentives.csv) to allow users to remove, extend, or replace AEO incentive levels for specific msegs in the Scout forecast.

A new function, import_state_data, was written in ecm_prep to read in and finalize the inputs for incentives modifications and (in the future) modifications to rates in one place.

Additionally, “federal” and “non-federal” branches on the existing residential incentives levels were added that split out the previously summed incentives across these dimensions, to allow more flexibility in making modifications to federal vs. sub-federal residential incentive levels for the residential sector (commercial incentives are not split out in this way in the AEO data.)

Users may modify incentive levels for a given applicable baseline segment or segment that a measure is switching to in three ways:

* Remove: exclude the AEO incentive from consideration beginning in a given start year (or for all years).
* Replace: if there is no removal (first bullet), specify a custom federal or state-level incentive that replaces any AEO incentive level previously specified for the given segment.
* Extend: if there is no removal or replacement (first and second bullets), find the largest level of the AEO incentive in years prior to a given start year and extend it through a given end year, possibly with a multiplier added on top of the existing AEO incentive.

For replacements of existing incentives for fuel switching, a user input determines whether the incentive allows the original fuel equipment to be retained as backup. For replacements, users must also specify information about how to qualify for the incentive – a performance threshold and units and the incentive level itself, which is either a % credit on installed cost or rebate $ decremented from installed cost.

Users may specify modifications to federal and sub-federal incentives separately, or can specify a modification that applies to both.

For sub-state-level incentives modifications, users may specify an applicable fraction that downscales the modification’s impact to only the portion of a state’s energy use that is affected by a sub-state policy.

An additional reference case measure flag, “ref_case_flag” was needed to ensure that incentives process correctly for add-on reference case measures (all add-on measures were previously excluded to prevent attempts to process incentives for, e.g., controls measures with relative % savings units, however ref. case measures are often defined as add-ons with zero performance or cost additions to the baseline and incentives should be assigned to these measures). The measure set was regenerated with this flag reflected.

Addresses issue #410.
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